000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061520 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1520 UTC Thu Jun 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N105W. The ITCZ continues from 06N105W to beyond 04N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 10N west of 90W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Deep low pressure is centered over the lower Colorado River valley. A relatively tight pressure gradient between the low pressure and high pressure west of the area is supporting fresh southerly flow across the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, recent ship observations and earlier scatterometer data showed light to gentle winds prevailing over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. A recent altimeter pass showed 4-6 ft seas off the coast of Baja California Sur. The high pressure west of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters through the weekend. Winds may briefly pulse to fresh speeds off Cabo San Lucas for the next several days. A fresh set of NW swell will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters by Fri. Seas will peak around 9 ft west of Guadalupe Island Fri night before gradually subsiding this weekend and into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are active south Panama this morning. This activity is due in part to divergence aloft associated with a sharp upper trough extending across the southwest Caribbean. Little shower or thunderstorm activity is observed elsewhere. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate SW monsoon flow persists to the south of the monsoon trough, while generally light winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. An altimeter satellite pass from 12 UTC data showed 5-7 ft seas off northern Central America. A tropical wave over the southwest Caribbean may drift into the far eastern Pacific off Panama Fri, reach the waters off Nicaragua by Sat, then off Guatemala by Sun with weak low pressure possibly forming along the tropical wave at 10N by early Sun. These features will be fairly weak, and little impact on winds and seas is except other than a slight increase in showers and thunderstorms. Farther south, a set of long period SW swell will propagate into the southern waters today, with seas building to 8-9 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas will likely remain 8 ft through Sat before subsiding into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure well north of the area near 41N145W southwestward through the Revillagigedo Islands. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass showed strong northerly winds off the coast of California between the high pressure and lower pressure inland, staying north of the forecast area. An recent altimeter pass from 14 UTC showed seas to 8 ft reaching 30N near 122W, likely in northerly swell related to the strong winds farther to the north. The swell 8 ft or greater is expected to move across the waters west of Guadalupe Island between 120W and 130W Fri, reaching as far south as 27N by Sat before subsiding Sun through Mon as high pressure lifts northward and weakens. Farther south, southerly swell will continue dominating the waters east of 120W through early next week. Recent altimeter passes revealed 8-9 ft seas over the high seas south of the Equator. Wave heights in this region will remain relatively unchanged through Fri night, then subside over the weekend and into early next week. As the swell propagates northward, pockets of 8 ft seas may emerge north of the Equator between 90W and 100W by Sat. $$ Christensen