000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0915 UTC Thu Jun 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure near 10N76W to 07N90W to 06N102W. The ITCZ begins near 06N102W and continues to 05N117W to 06N125W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the monsoon trough between 79W and 88W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm of a line from 03N77W to 05N82W and from 12N to 14N between 90W and 94W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and a low pressure trough over the Gulf of California is maintaining gentle to moderate NW winds across the Baja California offshore waters. East of the trough, moderate SE to S winds are likely occurring over the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico per overnight scatterometer data. A 04Z altimeter pass showed 4-6 ft seas off the coast of Baja California Sur. The high pressure west of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters through the weekend. Winds may briefly pulse to fresh speeds off Cabo San Lucas for the next several days. A fresh set of NW swell will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters by Fri. Seas will peak around 9 ft west of Guadalupe Island Fri night before gradually subsiding this weekend and into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE gap winds are likely ongoing across the Gulf of Papagayo tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW monsoon flow persists to the south of the monsoon trough, while generally light winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue off the coast of Central America and Colombia within the moist monsoonal flow. Earlier altimeter data showed 5-7 ft seas off the coast of Colombia and Ecuador, while a 02Z altimeter pass near the Galapagos Islands indicated 8 ft seas were just south of the forecast area. A set of long period SW swell will propagate into the southern waters today, with seas building to 8-9 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas will likely remain 8 ft through Sat before subsiding into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Scatterometer data from 05Z showed moderate NE winds occurring over the waters north of 28N as a high pressure ridge extends into the northern waters. Wave heights were nearing 8 ft around 30N125W based on a 0230Z altimeter pass. Stronger high pressure NW of the region will build eastward today through Fri. The resulting pressure gradient will generate moderate to fresh N to NE flow over the northern waters west of 120W beginning on Fri and continuing into the weekend. Seas will build to 8-10 ft in N swell roughly north of 27N between 120W and 130W by Fri night. These seas will persist through Sat, then subside Sun through Mon as high pressure lifts northward and weakens. Farther south, southerly swell will continue dominating the waters east of 120W through early next week. Recent altimeter passes revealed 8-9 ft seas over the high seas south of the Equator. Wave heights in this region will remain relatively unchanged through Fri night, then subside over the weekend and into early next week. As the swell propagates northward, pockets of 8 ft seas may emerge north of the Equator between 90W and 100W by Sat. $$ Reinhart