000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060244
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jun 06 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends axis from 10N86W to 08N92W to 
low pressure near 07N99W 1011 mb and 07N108W, where latest 
scatterometer data indicated that it transitions to the ITCZ and 
continues to 06N114W and to 09N120W where it ends to the 
southeast of a 1011 mb low near 10N126W. It resumes at 08N130W 
and continues to beyond the area at 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 08N east of 81W. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm south of 
trough between 86W and 89W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and
a low pressure trough over the gulf of California is maintaining
gentle to moderate northwest winds across the waters off the 
Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds continue over 
the remainder of the open waters off the coast of Mexico. Light 
and variable winds are across the gulf of California. Seas are in
the 4-6 ft range over the open waters, while seas of 2 ft or 
less are over the gulf of California.

The high pressure west of Baja California will maintain gentle 
to moderate northwest winds over the offshore waters for the 
next several days. A fresh set of northwest swell will reach the
Baja California Norte offshore waters by Fri. Seas will peak 
near 9 ft west of Guadalupe Island Fri before starting to subside
this weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Latest surface data indicates gentle to moderate southerly 
monsoonal flow remains to the south of the monsoon trough, with 
light northeast winds prevailing north of the monsoon trough. 
Seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail across the forecast waters. A 
set of long period southwest swell will propagate into the 
southern waters on Thu. Seas over these waters will build seas to
8 ft through Sat, before subsiding below 8 ft by Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure of 1030 mb is centered well to the northwest of 
the area near 40N147W. A ridge extends from it southeastward to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between 
the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of 
the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds north of 
the ITCZ to near 15N west of 115W. Light to gentle anticyclonic 
wind flow prevails elsewhere north of 115W. Seas are in the 5-7 
ft range over the region of moderate to fresh trades, and 4-6 ft 
elsewhere. 

The high pressure center will move eastward through the rest of 
this week, with its associated ridging building more southeast
and south over these waters. The interaction between the ridging
and a weak trough, that is presently a 1011 mb low near 10N126W,
will result in greater coverage of fresh northeast to east trades
mainly north of about 10N and west of 125W well into the weekend,
with seas in the range of 5-8 ft. 

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring
between 120 and 240 nm of the low in its southwest quadrant.

The gradient between the ridging and lower pressure over the SW
U.S. and northern Baja California will help usher in fresh to
strong north winds over the northeastern part of the area from 
Fri afternoon into early Sat. North swell will bring seas peaking
to around 9 or 10 ft over the northeastern part of the area.
These seas will begin to subside Sat afternoon.

$$
Aguirre