000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052200
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jun 05 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends axis from 10N86W to low pres near
07N96W 1011 mb to 08N102W and to 06N106W, where scatterometer 
data from this afternoon indicated that it transitions to the 
ITCZ and continues to 10N123W, where it briefly ends to the
east of a 1013 mb low near 10N125.5W. It resumes at 09N130W and 
continues to beyond the area at 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 09N between
81W and 86W. Scattered moderate convection is seem from
04N to 08N between 90W and 95W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and
a low pressure trough over the gulf of California is maintaining
gentle to moderate northwest winds across the waters off the 
Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds continue over 
the remainder of the open waters off the coast of Mexico. Light 
and variable winds are across the gulf of California. Seas are in
the 4-6 ft range over the open waters, while seas of 2 ft or 
less prevail over the gulf of California.

The high pressure west of Baja California will maintain gentle 
to moderate northwest winds over the offshore waters for the 
next several days. A fresh set of northwest swell will reach the
Baja California Norte offshore waters by Fri. Seas will peak 
near 9 ft west of Guadalupe Island Fri before starting to subside
this weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Latest surface data indicates gentle to moderate southerly 
monsoonal flow remains to the south of the monsoon trough, with 
light northeast winds prevailing north of the monsoon trough. 
Seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail across the forecast waters. A 
set of long period southwest swell will propagate into the 
southern waters on Thu. Seas over these waters will build seas to
8 ft through Sat, before subsiding below 8 ft by Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure of 1027 mb centered near 34N138W extends a ridge 
SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient 
between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh 
winds north of the ITCZ to near 15N west of 115W. Light to 
gentle anticyclonic wind flow prevails elsewhere north of 115W. 
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the region of moderate to fresh
trades, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. 

High pressure will build north of the area later this week, which
will freshen winds across the waters north of 27N between 120W 
and 130W Fri into Sat. Associated northerly swell will move into 
these waters Thu evening. Seas will build to 8-10 ft by Fri night
before subsiding over the weekend.

$$
Aguirre