000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050912 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0912 UTC Wed Jun 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to 10N86W to 1012 mb low pressure near 07N95W to 07N107W. The ITCZ continues from 07N107W to 05N110W to 11N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered strong convection is occurring within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 78W and 85W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm of the monsoon trough between 93W and 98W, within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 118W and 123W, and within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 124W and 126W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and a low pressure trough over Baja California is maintaining gentle to moderate NW flow across the northern waters. Recent ship observations and scatterometer data from 04Z-05Z showed moderate NW winds within roughly 100 nm of the coast between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas. Seas likely remain 4-6 ft off Baja California in S swell and NW wind waves. Elsewhere, weak low pressure persists over the waters SW of Acapulco near 16N102W. The high pressure west of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters for the next several days. Weak low pressure will dissipate off the southern coast of Mexico by tonight. A weak trough will persist near Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California through Fri night, which will support moderate S to SW winds over the northern Gulf. High pressure will strengthen NW of the region by late week, and associated NW swell will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters by Fri, with seas building to 9 ft west of Guadalupe Island. Wave heights will subside over the weekend as the ridge shifts further offshore. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer data shows moderate NE gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern prevails across the region with light to gentle SW to W winds off Central America south of the monsoon trough. Farther south, a 03Z scatterometer pass revealed moderate SW flow off the coast of Ecuador. SW swell persists between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and earlier altimeter data showed 7-8 ft seas as far north as 03N off the coast of southern Colombia. Another set of long period SW swell will propagate through the southern waters on Thu, which will maintain 8 ft seas through Sat. Wave heights are expected to subside below 8 ft over the southern waters by Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the northern waters as a ridge axis extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate trade winds persist west of 130W, while moderate to locally fresh winds are found north of the ITCZ per recent scatterometer data. Farther east, 1012 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough near 07N95W was producing fresh to locally strong winds based on multiple overnight scatterometer passes. This low is expected to weaken today as it drifts eastward along the monsoon trough. High pressure will build north of the area later this week, which will result in fresh N to NE winds across the waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W Fri into Sat. Associated northerly swell will move into these waters Thu night with seas building to 8-10 ft by Fri night. Wave heights will subside over the weekend as the ridge shifts further offshore. Available altimeter data over the southern waters suggests that seas have briefly subsided below 8 ft across much of the area south of the Equator and west of 100W. Additional sets of S to SW swell will propagate northward on Thu and Fri, and seas will generally remain 8 ft over the far southern waters through Sat. $$ Reinhart