000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050244
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jun 05 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia 
to across Costa Rica and Panama and to 10N86W to 07N92W to 
06N100W and to 07N110W, where scatterometer data from Tue
afternoon indicated that it transitions to the ITCZ and 
continues to 10N120W to 10N130W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection exists within 150 nm south of the 
trough between 95W and 98W, and within 30 nm north of the trough 
between 94W and 98W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 119W and
125W, and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 125W and 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and
a low pressure trough near Baja California is maintaining gentle
to moderate northwest winds across much of the region, as 
noted in an Ascat pass from this afternoon. Slightly stronger 
winds of fresh speeds are over the coastal waters off Baja 
California Sur. Altimeter pass off Baja California indicated 
seas to 4 to 6 ft. A 1010 mb low is about 250 nm southwest of 
Acapulco near 14N103W. A mid to upper-level inverted trough 
moving westward is near 104W. Ample deep layer moisture is 
advecting westward behind this trough, and is helping to develop 
scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 14N between 97W and 
104W.

The high pressure west of Baja California will maintain gentle 
to moderate northwest winds over the offshore waters for the next
several days. A weak trough will move across Baja California 
Norte and the northern Gulf of California mid to late week. Weak 
low pressure will remain nearly stationary off the coast of 
southern Mexico through Wed night. Fresh winds and northwest 
swell will begin to move into the Baja California Norte offshore 
waters by Thu afternoon and into Fri with seas building to 8-9 
ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern prevails across the region as overnight 
scatterometer data showed light and variable winds off the coast
of Central America. Recent altimeter satellite data showed seas
in the range of 5 to 6 ft. Farther south, altimeter data near 
the Galapagos Islands showed persistent 7-8 ft seas related to
southwest swell. Seas are building to 8 ft off the coast of 
southern Colombia, and will continue through late tonight and 
subside slightly late on Wed. Another round of long-period 
southwest swell will propagate through the southern waters on 
Thu, which will maintain 8 ft seas through Sat. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A ridge extends southeastward from 1027 mb high center near 
north of the area at 35N136W southeastward to the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Earlier Ascat showed mostly gentle to moderate trade 
winds south of the high pressure, but also an area of moderate to
fresh winds from 15N to 20N west of 135W. Altimeter data 
highlighted seas of 5-6 ft seas over the entire area. A mid to 
upper-level short wave trough is noted along roughly 137W south 
of 20N. Associated divergence aloft along with moderate trade 
wind convergence in the lower levels of the atmosphere to support
scattered showers and thunderstorms within 60 nm of the ITCZ 
west of about 131W. 

The upper trough will lift to the northeast and dampen out
through Wed morning. The high pressure will build later in the 
week, allowing a slight increase in the coverage of fresh trades 
along the ITCZ west of 125W, likely maintaining scattered showers
and thunderstorms and allowing seas to build. A new group of 
northerly swell move into the waters north of 29N between 123W 
and 127W beginning on Thu afternoon.

Farther south, altimeter data from earlier today revealed 
seas up to around 9 ft as far north as 04N between the Galapagos
Islands and 100W. Southern hemispheric swell will dominate the 
forecast waters east of 120W this week as additional sets of 
south to southwest swell will propagate into the southern waters 
Thu and Fri. Seas will generally remain 8 ft over the waters 
south of the Equator through Sat.

$$
Aguirre