000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050238 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jun 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends across Central America and southern Mexico to 16N95W to 10N100W to 07N110W, where scatterometer data from this afternoon indicated that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 11N121W to 10N133W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated to strong convection exists within 180 nm south of the trough between 95W and 98W, within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 120W and 125W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ west of 138W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 132W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and a low pressure trough near Baja California is maintaining gentle to moderate northwest winds across much of the region, as noted in an Ascat pass from this afternoon. Slightly stronger winds of fresh speeds are over the coastal waters off Baja California Sur. A recent altimeter pass off Baja California indicated seas to 4 to 6 ft. Minimal winds and seas persist over the Gulf of California, and the Mexican coast south of Cabo Corrientes where a 1012 mb low is centered near 15N102W. An upper-level trough moving westward is near 103W. Ample deep layer moisture is advecting westward behind this trough, and is helping to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 14N between 95W and 104W in addition to some earlier activity that is lingering near the coast of Guerrero from overnight drainage flow. The high pressure west of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate northwest winds over the offshore waters for the next several days. A weak trough will move across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California mid to late week. Weak low pressure will remain nearly stationary off the coast of southern Mexico through Wed night. Fresh winds and northwest swell will begin to move into the Baja California Norte offshore waters by Thu afternoon and into Fri with seas building to 8-9 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern prevails across the region as overnight scatterometer data showed light and variable winds off the coast of Central America. Recent altimeter satellite data showed seas in the range of 5 to 6 ft. Farther south, altimeter data near the Galapagos Islands showed persistent 7-8 ft seas related to southwest swell. Seas are building to 8 ft off the coast of southern Colombia, and will continue through late tonight and subside slightly late on Wed. Another round of long-period southwest swell will propagate through the southern waters on Thu, which will maintain 8 ft seas through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends southeastward from 1028 mb high center near north of the area at 35N138W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Ascat data from today showed mostly gentle to moderate trade winds south of the high pressure, but also an area of moderate to fresh winds from 15N to 20N west of 135W. Altimeter data highlighted seas of 5 to 6 ft seas over the entire area. A mid to upper-level short wave trough is noted along roughly 137W south of 20N. Associated divergence aloft is interacting with moderate trade wind convergence in the lower levels of the atmosphere to support scattered showers and thunderstorms within 60 nm of the ITCZ west of 132W. The upper trough will lift to the northeast and dampen out through tonight. The high pressure will build later in the week, allowing a slight increase in the coverage of fresh trades along the ITCZ west of 125W, likely maintaining scattered showers and thunderstorms and allowing seas to build. A new group of northerly swell move into the waters north of 29N between 123W and 127W beginning on Thu afternoon. Farther south, altimeter data from earlier today revealed seas up to around 9 ft as far north as 04N between the Galapagos Islands and 100W. Southern hemispheric swell will dominate the forecast waters east of 120W this week as reinforcing sets of south to southwest swell will propagate into the southern waters Thu and Fri. Seas will generally remain 8 ft over the waters south of the Equator through Sat. $$ Aguirre