000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041513 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1513 UTC Tue Jun 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Central America and southern Mexico to 16N95W to 10N100W to 07N110W. The ITCZ continues from 07N110W to 11N140W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 06N between 95W and 97W and within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ west of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and a low pressure trough near Baja California is maintaining NW flow across much of the region, as observed by an earlier scatterometer satellite pass. This pass missed the coastal waters off Baja California Sur, where NW winds may be pulsing to at least 15 to 20 kt this morning. A recent altimeter pass off Baja California indicated seas to 4 to 6 ft. Minimal winds and seas persist over the Gulf of California, and the Mexican coast south of Cabo Corrientes where a 1011 mb low remains anchored off Acapulco. A few showers and thunderstorms linger near the coast of Guerrero related to overnight drainage flow. The high pressure west of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate NW winds over the offshore waters for the next several days. A weak trough will move across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California mid to late week. Weak low pressure will remain nearly stationary off the coast of southern Mexico through Wed. Fresh winds and northwest swell will move into the Baja California Norte offshore waters by Fri with seas building to 8-9 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern prevails across the region as overnight scatterometer data showed light and variable winds off the coast of Central America. Recent altimeter satellite passes indicated seas of 5 to 7 ft, but these wave heights are expected to subside later today as SW swell begins decaying. Farther south, altimeter data near the Galapagos Islands showed persistent 7-8 ft seas related to SW swell. Seas will build to 8 ft off the coast of southern Colombia Tue night and Wed as the swell propagates northward toward the Gulf of Panama. Wave heights will briefly subside before a reinforcing set of SW swell arrives over the southern waters on Thu, which will maintain 8 ft seas through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends southeastward from 1025 mb high pressure near 35N138W to the Revillagigedo Islands. A scatterometer satellite pass from 07 UTC showed mostly gentle to moderate trade winds south of the high pressure, but also an area of moderate to fresh winds from 15N to 20N west of 135W. Various altimeter satellite passes from the past several hours show 5 to 7 ft seas over the entire area. A mid to upper level short wave trough is noted along roughly 137W south of 20N. Associated divergence aloft is interacting with moderate trade wind convergence in the lower levels of the atmosphere to support scattered showers and thunderstorms within 60 nm of the ITCZ west of 132W. The upper trough will lift to the northeast and dampen out through tonight. The high pressure will build later in the week, allowing a slight increase in the coverage of fresh trades along the ITCZ west of 125W, likely maintaining scattered showers and thunderstorms and allowing seas to build. A new group of northerly swell move into the waters north of 28N between 120W and 125W through late week as well. Farther south, earlier altimeter data indicated 8-9 ft seas extend as far north as 04N between the Galapagos Islands and 100W. Southern hemisphere swell will dominate the forecast waters east of 120W this week as reinforcing sets of S to SW swell move northward into the southern waters Thu and Fri. Seas will generally remain 8 ft over the waters south of the Equator through Sat. $$ Christensen