000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030910 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0910 UTC Mon Jun 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The latest model guidance indicates the circulation associated with the Central American Gyre is beginning to break down over southern Mexico and Central America. Showers and thunderstorms persist across southeastern Mexico in association with a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche. This system will likely continue producing heavy rainfall over southern Mexico over the next few days with sufficient environmental instability and deep moisture streaming northward from the eastern Pacific. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Central America and southern Mexico to 16N94W to 12N100W to 08N105W to 10N121W. The ITCZ continues from 10N121W to 06N133W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 86W and 88W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 60 nm of the coast of southern Mexico between 93W and 102W, and within 90 nm south of the ITCZ between 137W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong NW winds are occurring south of Los Cabos per 04Z scatterometer data. These fresh winds are expected to pulse off Los Cabos for the next couple days as a high pressure ridge remains positioned west of the offshore waters. Moderate to fresh NW winds will also pulse south of Punta Eugenia early this week. Weak low pressure is expected to form south of Acapulco later today and remain nearly stationary offshore through Wed night. No significant winds and seas are expected with this feature. Looking ahead, high pressure strengthening north of the area by late week will support strong northerly winds off the coast of California. Associated swell will impact the Baja California Norte offshore waters by Fri with seas building to 8-9 ft. Gulf of California: Recent scatterometer data showed fresh SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California north of 30N. These winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds this morning as a low pressure trough weakens over the Gulf and the local pressure gradient relaxes. Otherwise, gentle breezes will prevail across the Gulf through this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle W to SW winds persist over the Central American offshore waters south of the monsoon trough with seas generally ranging from 4-7 ft in SW swell. Long period SW swell over the southern waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands is likely producing seas to 8 ft. Wave heights will build to 8 ft off the coast of Colombia as far north as 02N by Tue before the swell decays over the region. Seas will briefly subside Tue night through Wed before another long period SW swell event results in 8 ft seas by late week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends southeastward from 1025 mb high pressure near 35N140W to the Revillagigedo Islands. A recent altimeter pass revealed a small area of seas to 8 ft in northerly swell north of 29N between 125W and 130W. Moderate to locally fresh NE trade winds prevail between the ridge and the ITCZ. Trade winds will diminish slightly over the next couple days as the ridge weakens over the high seas. By Fri, stronger high pressure will build into the area from the NW. The resulting pressure gradient will result in fresh N to NE winds over the waters north of 26N with combined seas building to 8-10 ft. Farther south, overnight altimeter data still indicated wave heights to 8 ft south of the Equator generally west of 100W. Residual swell will decay from west to east through Tue. Another SW swell event will impact the far southern waters mid to late week with seas once again peaking to 8 ft south of the Equator. $$ Reinhart