000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030238 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jun 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Locally Heavy Rainfall Over Southeastern Mexico and Northern Central America... Locally heavy rainfall will continue over portions of southeastern Mexico and northern Central America, including the adjacent coastal waters during the next few days as the region remains under the influence of a broad, low-level cyclonic circulation known as the Central American Gyre. Deep moisture from the eastern Pacific will continue to interact with a low pressure system over the southern Bay of Campeche and along with plenty of instability over these areas to maintain the threat of heavy rainfall for the next several days. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from across Central America and southern Mexico to 1007 mb low pressure near 15N95W, then continues to 10N102W to 09N110W and to 11N120W, where scatterometer data from Sun afternoon indicated that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N130W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 113W and 115W and also north of the ITCZ between 120W and 124W. Increasing numerous strong convection is noted north of 13N to well inland the northern portion of Central America from the Honduran/Nicaraguan border to just west of the border between extreme eastern Mexico and Guatemala. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh southwest winds are over the far northern Gulf of California. These winds are expected to diminishing to gentle to moderate on Mon as troughing moves over northern Baja California weakens further. Moderate northwest winds will continue to the south of Punta Eugenia, while gentle to moderate northwest winds are elsewhere off the Baja California coast per recent scatterometer data. Fresh northeast winds will pulse across the waters south of Punta Eugenia and off Los Cabos for the next several days as a high pressure ridge remains located to the west of the offshore waters. Farther south, a nearly stationary 1007 mb low is analyzed near 15N95W along the monsoon trough just south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This low will likely remain stationary through this evening before it dissipates. Another weak low may possibly form late tonight or early on Mon near 14N100W and and remain nearly stationary through Tue night before it dissipates Wed. No significant winds or seas are expected with either feature. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle west to southwest winds remain over the Central American offshore waters south of the monsoon trough along with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. Farther south, recent altimeter satellite data continue to show seas peaking up to 8 ft due to long-period southwest swell to the south of the Galapagos Islands. This swell will maintain seas peaking to 8-9 ft seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue night. The swell will decay from Tue night through Wed night allowing for seas to briefly subside. Wave model guidance indicates that yet another set of long-period southwest swell will begin to move through these same waters beginning late on Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends from a 1025 mb high center located to the northwest of the area near 34N143W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Scatterometer satellite passes from this afternoon showed fresh northeast trade winds southwest and west of the ridge, roughly from about 19N to about 27N while weaker, in the gentle to moderate range, northeast to east trades are elsewhere south of the ridge. Earlier altimeter satellite data showed 8 ft seas roughly along 140W within the trade winds. Presently, it appears these seas have shifted to the west of 140W. The ridge will gradually weaken slightly early this week as the high center shifts northeastward. This will result in diminishing trade winds and subsiding seas. By late in the week, a stronger area of high pressure will build into the are from northwest of the area, and the resulting pressure gradient may produce fresh north to northeast winds over the waters north of 25N with seas building to around 8 ft. Altimeter data from a few hours ago indicated seas to 8 ft or greater persisting over the waters south of the Equator and west of 105W. As the southwest swell gradually decays early this week, seas will subside below 8 ft from west to east. Another long- period southwest swell event is expected by mid to late week, with seas peaking once again to 8 ft south of the Equator. $$ Aguirre