000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030212 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jun 2 2019 Corrected Offhsore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Locally Heavy Rainfall Over Southeastern Mexico... Locally heavy rainfall will continue over portions of southeastern Mexico and the adjacent coastal waters during the next few days as the region remains under the influence of a broad, low-level cyclonic circulation known as the Central American Gyre. Deep moisture from the eastern Pacific will continue to interact with a low pressure system over the southern Bay of Campeche to maintain the threat of heavy rainfall for the next several days. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from across Central America and southern Mexico to 1008 mb low pressure near 15N95W, then continues to 10N102W to 09N110W and to 11N121W, where scatterometer data from this afternoon indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N131W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 130W and 132W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 92W and 95W and also between 118W and 121W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected The earlier observed small area of fresh to strong west to southwest winds over the far northern Gulf of California has diminished to mainly moderate winds as the previously tight local pressure gradient resulting from weak troughing over Baja California Norte has relaxed. These winds are expected to pulse to fresh speeds again tonight before diminishing by Mon as the weak troughing moves farther east allowing for the local pressure gradient to relax. Moderate northwest winds will continue to the south of Punta Eugenia, while gentle to moderate northwest winds are elsewhere off the Baja California coast per recent scatterometer data. Fresh northeast winds will pulse across the waters south of Punta Eugenia and off Los Cabos for the next several days as a high pressure ridge remains located to the west of the offshore waters. Farther south, a 1008 mb low is analyzed near 15N95W along the monsoon trough just south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This low will likely remain stationary through this evening before it dissipates. Another weak low is expected to form overnight near 14N100W and remain nearly stationary Tue night. No significant winds or seas are expected with either feature. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle west to southwest winds remain over the Central American offshore waters south of the monsoon trough along with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. Farther south, recent altimeter satellite data continue to show seas peaking up to 8 ft due to long-period southwest swell to the south of the Galapagos Islands. This swell will maintain seas peaking to 8-9 ft seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue night. The swell will decay from Tue night through Wed night allowing for seas to briefly subside. Wave model guidance indicates that yet another set of long-period southwest swell will begin to move through these same waters beginning late on Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends from a 1026 mb high center located to the northwest of the area near 35N142W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Scatterometer satellite passes from this afternoon showed fresh northeast trade winds southwest and west of the ridge, roughly from about 19N to about 27N while weaker, in the gentle to moderate range, northeast to east trades are elsewhere south of the ridge. Concurrent altimeter satellite passes continued to show 8 ft seas roughly along 140W within the trade winds. The ridge will gradually weaken early this week, resulting in diminishing trade winds and subsiding seas. By late week, high pressure will strengthen northwest of the area, and the resulting pressure gradient may produce fresh north to northeast winds over the waters north of 25N with seas building to around 8 ft. Various altimeter satellite passes also indicated seas to 8 ft or greater persisting over the waters south of the Equator and west of 105W. As the southwest swell gradually decays early this week, seas will subside below 8 ft from west to east. Another long-period southwest swell event is expected by mid to late week, with seas peaking once again to 8 ft south of the Equator. $$ Aguirre