000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021542 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1542 UTC Sun Jun 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Locally Heavy Rainfall Over Southeastern Mexico... Locally heavy rainfall will continue over portions of southeastern Mexico and the adjacent coastal waters during the next few days as the region remains under the influence of a broad, low-level cyclonic circulation known as the Central American Gyre. Deep moisture from the eastern Pacific will interact with a low pressure system over the southern Bay of Campeche to maintain the threat of heavy rainfall for the next several days. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Central America and southern Mexico to 1008 mb low pressure near 15N95.5W, then continues to 10N102W to 09N110W. The ITCZ extends from 09N110W to 10N120W to 06N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing within 60 nm of the coast of Mexico between 92W and 101W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak low pressure is moving across Baja California Norte and the far northern Gulf of California, related to a large feature north of the area moving into the western United States. An earlier scatterometer pass indicated a small area of fresh to strong W to SW winds over the northern Gulf of California emerging out of the gap wind area in Baja California Norte near 30N. These SW gap winds are expected to pulse to fresh speeds again tonight before diminishing by Mon as the low pressure area moves farther east and local pressure gradient relaxes. Moderate NW breezes prevail south of Punta Eugenia with gentle winds elsewhere off the Baja California coast per recent scatterometer data. Fresh NW winds will pulse across the waters south of Punta Eugenia and off Los Cabos for the next several days as a high pressure ridge remains positioned west of the offshore waters. Farther south, 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed at 15N95.5W along the monsoon trough just south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This low will likely remain stationary today before dissipating. Another weak low is expected to form overnight near 14N100W and remain nearly stationary Tue night. No significant winds or seas are expected with either feature. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle W to SW winds prevail over the Central American offshore waters south of the monsoon trough, with 4 to 6 ft seas prevailing overall. Farther south, altimeter satellite passes continue to show seas 8 ft in SW swell south of the Galapagos Islands per available altimeter data. This swell will maintain 8-9 ft seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue. Seas will briefly subside Tue night and Wed before another set of SW swell approaches the region by late week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure located northwest of the area near 35N141W southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Earlier scatterometer satellite passes showed fresh NE trade winds south of the ridge from 20N to 25N west of 135W, with a broad region of moderate trades between the ridge and the ITCZ. Concurrent altimeter satellite passes continued to show 8 ft seas roughly along 140W within the trade winds. The ridge will gradually weaken early this week, resulting in diminishing trade winds and subsiding seas. By late week, high pressure will strengthen northwest of the area, and the resulting pressure gradient may produce fresh N to NE winds over the waters north of 25N with seas building to 8-9 ft. Various altimeter satellite passes also indicated seas to 8 ft or greater persisting over the waters south of the Equator and west of 105W. As the SW swell gradually decays early this week, seas will subside below 8 ft from west to east. Another SW swell event is expected by mid to late week, with wave heights once again reaching 8 ft south of the Equator. $$ Christensen