000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0900 UTC Wed May 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy Rainfall Potential Over Central America and Southern Mexico... A large low level cyclonic circulation that is typical for this time of the year, called a Central American Gyre, is forecast to persist across the far eastern tropical Pacific and Central America for the next several days. Locally heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. These rains could cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local Meteorological Weather Service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 13N97W to 07N126W. The ITCZ extends from 07N126W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted N of 05N between 83W and 87W. Scattered moderate to strong convection was noted within 90 nm N of the monsoon trough between 87W and 93W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 16N between 95W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 07N to 10N between 105W and 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends across the forecast waters W of the Baja California peninsula. Latest surface observations indicate moderate to fresh winds west of the Baja California peninsula, with seas in the 7-8 ft range. The monsoon trough has lifted northward into the waters just S of southern Mexico. Fresh to strong winds prevail S of the monsoon trough, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 ft or less prevail across the Gulf of California. Abundant moisture within the enhanced monsoonal flow will continue to produce locally heavy rains with gusty winds across portions of the coastal waters S of 16N the next couple of days. Strong SW winds will prevail south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec through early Fri before diminishing. Moderate to fresh winds off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula will diminish Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more information about the Central American Gyre, which will continue to bring locally heavy rains to parts of Central America and the adjacent offshore waters through the next several days. Latest surface observations indicate moderate to fresh S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough to 06N, with seas in the 8-10 ft range. S of 06N, light to gentle winds with seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 7-8 ft prevail N of the monsoon trough. The southerly monsoon flow is forecast to strengthen to 20-25 kt N of 09N today, with seas building to near 12 ft by Thu as locally generated wind waves in the enhanced monsoon flow combines with cross equatorial SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1028 mb centered near 34N138W extends a ridge southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds across much of the area north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh winds will continue to prevail over this area the next several days. Long period cross equatorial SW swell will continue to dominate much of the forecast waters. Seas 8 ft or greater cover much of the waters south of 13N between 85W and 115W. Seas will slowly subside over the next couple of days, with areal coverage of seas 8 ft or greater gradually decreasing. $$ AL