029 AXPZ20 KNHC 261611 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun May 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of California Gale Warning... Gale force SW gap winds have been occurring across the northern Gulf of California north of 29.5N during the last several hours, but have recently begun to diminish, as indicated by coastal observations across the area. Peak winds are now assumed at 30 kt and less, and the gale warning is being allowed to expire. Winds will diminish throughout the day and then increase to 20 to 30 kt this evening, just ahead of an approaching cold front. As the cold front moves eastward across the northen Gulf tonight, winds will decrease again and veer westerly, with NW winds around 25 kt spilling into the far northern end of the Gulf behind the front. Winds will then diminish to 20 kt or less during the late morning hours of Mon. ...Heavy Rainfall Potential Over Central America... A large low level cyclonic circulation that is typical for this time of the year, called a Central American Gyre, is forecast to persist across the far eastern tropical Pacific and Central America for the next several days. This will continue bringing abundant moisture and areas of heavy rainfall across portions of Central America. Computer model forecasts have begun to indicate the chance for increasing moisture and instability associated with this feature Tue through Wed and could lead to a very significant rainfall event. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 9.5N74W to low pres near 11N88.5W 1010 MB TO 13.5N98W TO 08N115W TO 09.5N123W TO 06.5N133W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N133W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05.5N TO 14N between 80W AND 106W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 05.5N TO 12N between 119W AND 128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Please see special features section above for more on the gale event over the northern Gulf of California. Over the central and southern parts of the Gulf, mainly light and variable winds prevail, with seas 2 ft or less. Winds will begin to shift more NW tonight through Mon as a series of weak cold frontal boundaries approach and sweep eastward across the northern Gulf tonight through Tuesday. Winds across central and southern portions will increase to 10-15 kt during this time with seas building 2-3 ft. A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds off the coast of the Baja California peninsula, and light to gentle NW to W winds over the remainder of the open waters off the coast of Mexico. Seas are generally in the 5-7 ft range across the entire area in a mix of NW and cross equatorial SW swell. High pressure well NW of the region will build over the next few days. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the offshore waters to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the waters off Baja California tonight through Tue night, with seas building into the 6 to 8 ft range. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region into early today, with seas will building to 8-9 ft. Winds and seas will diminish today and then pulse again to 20-25 kt again tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more information about the Central American Gyre, which will continue to bring locally heavy rains to parts of Central America and the adjacent offshore waters through at least mid week. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail S of the monsoon trough, with seas in the 4-7 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail N of the monsoon trough. Low pres embedded within the broad gyre will meander offshore the coast of Nicaragua the next couple of days. The monsoon trough will lift northward through the early part of the week, with southerly monsoon flow strengthening, potentially to 20-25 kt by Tue. Seas will build to 8-12 ft by mid week in this enhanced monsoon flow. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb centered NW of the area near 35N139W extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds across much of the area N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. Moderate to fresh winds will continue to prevail over this area the next several days. SW cross equatorial swell will dominate the forecast waters S of 10N and W of 95W for the next few days, with new swell arriving late Tue. Seas 8 ft or greater will cover much of the forecast waters S of 10N between 95W and 125W by early this week. $$ Stripling