000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260903
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
509 UTC Sun May 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of California Gale Warning...

Gale force SW gap winds prevail across the northern Gulf of 
California. Winds will diminish below gale force early today, and
further diminish to 20 kt or less Mon.

...Heavy Rainfall Potential Over Central America...

A large low level cyclonic circulation that is typical for this 
time of the year, called a Central American Gyre, will continue 
bringing abundant moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of 
Central America during the next few days. Life- threatening 
flash flooding and mudslides will be possible in areas of 
mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local meteorological 
service for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 15N97W to 08N112W to
08N123W to 06N131W. The ITCZ extends from 06N131W to beyond
06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
within 120 nm N of the monsoon trough between 86W and 99W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 12N between
119W and 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of California: Please see special features section above 
for more on the gale event over the northern Gulf of California.
Over the central and southern parts of the Gulf, mainly light to
gentle winds prevail, with seas 2 ft or less.

A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters W of Baja 
California producing mainly gentle to moderate winds off the
coast of the Baja California peninsula, and light to gentle winds
over the remainder of the open waters off the coast of Mexico.
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. High pressure well NW of the 
region will build over the next few days. This will tighten the 
pressure gradient across the offshore waters to support moderate
to fresh NW to N winds across the waters off Baja California 
tonight through Tue night, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region into early today, with 
seas will building to 8-9 ft. Winds and seas will diminish today. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for more information 
about the Central American Gyre, which will continue to bring 
locally heavy rains to parts of Central America and the adjacent
offshore waters. 

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail S of the monsoon 
trough, with seas in the 4-7 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh 
winds, and seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail N of the monsoon 
trough. Low pres embedded within the broad gyre will meander 
offshore the coast of Nicaragua the next couple of days. The 
monsoon trough will lift northward through the early part of the 
week, with southerly monsoon flow strengthening. Seas will build 
to 8-12 ft by mid week in this enhanced monsoon flow.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure of 1027 mb centered NW of the area near 36N140W 
extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds 
across much of the area N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. Moderate to
fresh winds will continue to prevail over this area the next 
several days.

SW swell will dominate the forecast waters S of 10N and W of 
95W. Seas 8 ft or greater will cover much of the forecast waters 
S of 10N between 95W and 125W by early this week. 

$$
AL