000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251623 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat May 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of California Gale Warning... A cold front sweeping through Southern California this morning will approach Baja California Norte today, helping to strengthen SW gap winds across the northern Gulf of California. Strong winds will prevail tonight through Sun night north of 29.5N, with a brief period of gale force winds expected late tonight into Sun morning. Winds will shift to NW to N behind the front early Mon before the front weakens. Wind speeds will then diminish over the Gulf through mid week. ...Heavy Rainfall Potential Over Central America... A large low level cyclonic circulation that is typical for this time of the year, called a Central American Gyre, prevails across Central America and the adjacent Caribbean and tropical Pacific waters between about 81W and 100W. This feature is expected to persist for several days and will continue bringing abundant moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N73W to low pressure near 11.5N88W 1007 MB to 13.5N93W to 07.5N123W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N123W to 07.5N127W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 01.5N TO 08N E OF 82W and from 08N TO 15N between 86W AND 98W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 100W and 115W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ W of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see special features section above for more on the upcoming gale event over the northern Gulf of California. Overnight ASCAT data suggested that gentle NW winds prevailed across the open waters N of 20N, while gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevailed from Las Tres Marias to near Puerto Angel. Seas off the Baja California peninsula remain in the 6-8 ft range in NW swell, and 5-7 ft in mixed swell over the remainder of the open waters off the coast of Mexico. Light to moderate variable winds, and seas of 2 ft or less, prevail across the Gulf of California. High pressure well NW of the region will build modestly SE into the region over the next few days and act to strengthen the pressure gradient across the area waters. This will increase winds into the moderate to fresh range through early Mon, with diurnal heating on Mon and Tue yielding areas of strong afternoon through early evening winds along the prominent points and capes of the Baja peninsula. NW swell moving through the regional waters today will diminish tonight through Sun and allow for seas to subside by 1-2 ft during that time. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late tonight into early Sun. Seas will build to 8-9 ft by early Sun morning before subsiding below 8 ft by Sun evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more information about the Central American Gyre, which will continue to bring heavy rain to parts of Central America and the adjacent offshore waters. Light to gentle SW to W winds prevail S of the monsoon trough, with seas in the 4-7 ft range. Light to moderate winds of varying direction, and seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail N of the monsoon trough. Low pres embedded within the broad gyre will meander offshore the coast of Nicaragua the next couple of days. The monsoon trough will lift northward through the early part of the week, with southerly monsoon flow will strengthening and shifting northward with the trough. Seas will build to 8-12 ft by mid week in this enhanced monsoon flow. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Overnight altimeter data indicated seas of generally 7-8 ft covering most of the forecast waters N of 20N in a broad mix of swell. High pressure well NW of the area extends a ridge SE to near 14N108W. The associated pressure gradient S of the ridge is yielding fresh NE winds across much of the area N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. The ridge will build modestly SE into the region over the weekend with the main repercussion being to veer winds more E to NE with little change in strength. SW swell producing seas near 8 ft covers the forecast waters S of 13N between 94W and 115W, and will dominate seas there through Sun, before new SW swell enters the southern waters, and propagate northward through mid week. This will result in a large area of seas 8 ft or greater south of 11N between 90W and 125W by Tue. $$ Stripling