000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231002 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu May 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to a 1009 mb low pressure near the coast of Nicaragua at 11.9N86.4W to 10N96W to 10N110W to 08N119W. The ITCZ continues from 08N119W to 06N130W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous strong convection and tstms are across western Nicaragua and from 09N to 13N E of 89W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 13N between 93W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N to 09N W of 121W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge west of Baja California and lower pressure across the SW CONUS and northern Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off the west coast of Baja California. NW swell associated with stronger winds off California continues to support 8-12 ft seas north of Cabo San Lazaro. Peak seas of 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia will subside later this morning while seas to 10 ft will persist across the region through Fri morning before the swell decays. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will likely persist into early Thu before diminishing. Gulf of California: Strong to near gale force SW to W gap winds continue over the Gulf of California between 27N and 30.5N with seas to 9 ft between 29.5N and 30.5N. Fresh to near gale force NW winds are N of 31N with seas to 5 ft. Wind speeds will quickly diminish later this morning as the pressure gradient relaxes over the region. Looking ahead, another strong to near gale force SW gap wind event is expected Sat night through Sun night ahead of a cold front approaching the region. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat and Sun. Seas will build to 8 ft within the strongest winds during the overnight and early morning hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A low pressure system located inland Nicaragua near the coast continue to support numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms over western Nicaragua, southern Honduras and over E Pacific waters from 09N to 13N E of 89W. This system is expected to continue to meander near the coast of Central America during the next few days, and gradual development is possible during the weekend. Even if development does not occur, locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Central America during the next few days. These rains could cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Otherwise, the monsoon trough will dominate the regional pattern into early next week. Expect generally light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough and moderate to fresh S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough through the weekend. Early next week, the global models suggest strong winds may develop south of the trough, although this depends on how the low pressure system described above evolves in the coming days. Seas generally will run 8 ft or less into the weekend, then build into early next week in response to the strengthening monsoon flow. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Northwest swell over the waters north of 20N and east of 131W is producing seas ranging from 8 to 13 ft across the region with the highest seas N of 27N between 116W and 125W. This swell will gradually decay by Fri with seas falling below 8 ft Fri night into Sat. A high pressure ridge extends from a 1033 mb high near 37N138W east-southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is maintaining fresh trades over the waters west of 133W with seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere, a small area of 8 ft seas in SW swell persists roughly from 06N to 13N between 95W and 111W. A pulse of cross- equatorial SW swell will result in 8 ft seas developing today over the waters generally south of the Equator between 100W and 120W. A second and stronger SW swell is expected early on Sun through early next week. $$ Ramos