000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220955 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed May 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to a 1009 mb low pressure near 10N88W to 08N110W to 07N115W to 06N125W. The ITCZ then continues along 05N135W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 07N to 12N between 84W and 88W, from 08N to 12N between 95W and 100W, and from 06N to 11N between 107W and 116W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N W of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a ridge west of Baja California and lower pressure across the SW United States and NW Mexico supports moderate to fresh NW winds in the offshore waters of Baja California, except for strong NW winds N of the Sebastian Vizcaino Bay. The strong winds will last until Wed night while moderate to fresh winds elsewhere will prevail through Thu morning. In the region of the strongest winds, NW of El Rosario, seas will reach to 13 ft. Then, winds and seas will gradually subside through Fri night. Gulf of California: The same pressure gradient between the ridge west of Baja California and lower pressure across the SW United States supports strong SW to W winds in the northern Gulf of California. The tail of a cold front will move across the northern gulf this evening and will support strong NW winds N of 31N through early Thu with seas to 8 ft. Winds and seas will diminish Thu morning, but will resume again Sat evening as a cold front approaches the N Gulf of California and the pressure gradient tightens. Smoke and haze from fires across southern Mexico could reduce visibilities over the southern Mexican offshore zones for at least the next couple of days. No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the Mexican offshore zones over the next few days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient across the region will support quiescent winds and seas through the end of the week. Abundant atmospheric moisture, along with conducive large scale lift, will contribute to the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for the next few days over the Central American offshore zones. Tropical cyclone formation is unlikely during the next couple of days, but is possible by the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends east-southeastward from a 1032 mb high at 39N138W down to the Revillagigedo Islands. The moderate pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting up to fresh breeze NE tradewinds. West of 130N between about 08-20N, the fresh breeze NE winds are combining with some NW and SW swell to cause peak seas of 8-9 ft as indicated by latest altimeter data. A NW swell of about 13 ft will be reaching 29N Wed afternoon and 27N early on Thu before gradually diminishing Thu afternoon through Sat morning. Otherwise, SW swell will reach the southern boundary at 03.4S on Thu and cause peak seas of about 9 ft south of about 10N before starting to diminish on Sun. Tropical cyclone formation is unlikely during the next couple of days, but is possible by the weekend. $$ NR