889 AXPZ20 KNHC 210839 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue May 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 10N99W to 07N113W to 06N120W. The ITCZ begins near 06N120W and continues to 05N133W, then resumes near 06N138W to beyond 140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N E of 90W, from 03N to 10N between 96W and 114W, and from 05N to 10N between 120W and 129W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a ridge west of the Baja California and lower pressure across the SW CONUS and Mexico supports moderate to fresh NW winds in the offshore waters as indicated by latest scatterometer data. The scatterometer also show a small area of strong NW winds between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Seas N of 23N range between 9 to 10 ft in NW swell. Seas S of 23N to the offshore waters of Jalisco range between the 8 to 9 ft as indicated by latest altimeter data. These conditions will prevail through Thu night with strong winds and seas to 13 ft developing N of Punta Eugenia Tue night through Wed night as a cold front moves across Baja Norte into the Gulf of California. Seas will gradually subside Thu through Fri night. Gentle to moderate NW winds with seas to 7 ft are expected during the remainder weekend. Light to gentle variable winds will dominate the offshore waters of Guerrero and Oaxaca through early Sat. The next Tehuantepec gap wind event is likely on Sun morning. Gulf of California: Fresh to strong SW to W winds will develop over the northern gulf N of 29N Tue night through early Thu as a cold front moves across the area. Seas will build to 8 ft Wed night and subside Thu morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and seas to 6 ft will dominate the offshore waters N of the monsoon trough through Sat. Moderate to fresh SW winds will dominate the waters south of the monsoon trough through Wed morning when winds will start to gradually diminish. During this period seas in SW swell will range from 5 to 8 ft. Deep atmospheric moisture, along with favorable large scale lift over this region will help contribute to the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms well into the upcoming week. Some of this activity may produce heavy rain and strong gusty winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad and strong ridge anchored NW of the area continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of 10N W of 120W with seas to 10 ft. These conditions will prevail through Fri evening as the ridge starts to weaken. However, seas in the NE forecast waters N of 24N will reach 11 to 14 ft Wed evening through Thu evening as a cold front passes through Baja California Norte. Winds less than 20 kt prevail elsewhere. Otherwise, a surface trough from 09N134W to 03N136W is supporting scattered moderate convection from 03N to 09N W of 134W. $$ Ramos