000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202143 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2120 UTC Mon May 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N84W to 10N90W to 10N105W to 07N120W. The ITCZ extends from 07N120W to 07N128W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over forecast waters from 04N to 12N between 80W and 104W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 108W and 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from north central Mexico near 31N108W to the central portions of the Baja California Peninsula near 26N112W to the E Pacific near 23N117W to 21N126W. Latest surface observations indicate moderate fresh to strong winds over the northern Gulf of California, with seas to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf of California with seas 3 ft or less. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas 5-7 ft, prevails off the coast of the Baja California peninsula. Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, light to gentle winds with seas in the 5-7 ft range prevails. The cold front will weaken this evening. Another cold front will move across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California Tue night and early Wed, then move across the rest of Baja California and the Gulf of California through Thu while dissipating. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... South of the monsoon trough, mainly light to gentle southwest winds prevail, with seas in the 5-8 ft range. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and seas in the 5-7 ft range prevails. A weak pressure pattern will continue, and maintain light to gentle winds across the majority of the region for the next several days. Deep atmospheric moisture, along with favorable large scale lift over this region will help contribute to the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms well into the upcoming week. Some of this activity may produce heavy rain and strong gusty winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front analyzed from central Baja California to near 21N126W will dissipate by tomorrow, with high pressure building in its wake. The pressure gradient between the building high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds along the tradewind belt between 10N and 20N west of 130W, with seas reaching 8 ft. Elsewhere, winds less than 20 kt prevails across the area. NW swell propagating behind the cold front has helped for seas in the 8-11 ft range to prevail across much of the waters N of 20N. The combination of the northerly swell, southerly swell and local winds will build seas to 8 ft over much of the trade wind belt west of 120W by the middle of the week. $$ Formosa