000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192116 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2116 UTC Sun May 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N91W to 07N105W to 07N115W. The ITCZ continues from 07N115W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 85W and 90W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent ship observations indicate moderate winds persist west of the Baja California peninsula with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Light to gentle winds with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range prevails over the remainder of the open waters off the coast of Mexico. Light and variable winds with seas 2 ft or less prevails across the Gulf of California. A cold front will move into the waters off Baja California Norte into the northern Gulf of California tonight into Mon, then dissipate by Tue. A large set of long period southerly swell will continue to move into the Mexican offshore waters through Mon before mixing with northwest swell beginning on Mon night. Another weak cold front may move across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California by mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across the area. Seas in the 4 to 7 ft range prevails over the offshore waters north of 02N, while seas are reaching 8 ft in SW swell south of 02N. Mainly light to gentle SW monsoon flow will prevail across most of the region for the next several days. Large cross equatorial southwest swell off Ecuador will move into the outer offshore waters of Central America beginning tonight and into the middle part of the upcoming week. Deep atmospheric moisture, along with favorable large scale lift over this region will help contribute to the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms well into the upcoming week. Some of this activity may produce heavy rain and strong gusty winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front reaching from 31N119W to 24N135W will move across the waters north of 20N through tonight. Recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite images show moderate to fresh NW winds following the front along with 7 to 9 ft seas, primarily in NW swell. Weak high pressure building behind the front is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther south into the deep tropics along the ITCZ, with 5 to 7 ft seas. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted due to the relatively weak trade wind convergence. The combination of the northerly swell, southerly swell and local winds will build seas to 8 ft over much of the trade wind belt west of 120W by the middle of the week. $$ Christensen