000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191454
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1500 UTC Sun May 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N93W to 12N105W to
07N117W. The ITCZ continues from 07N117W to 06N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N
between 86W and 94W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted from 05N to 10N between 110W and 130W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Latest observations indicate moderate winds west of the Baja
California peninsula with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Light to
gentle winds with seas in the 5-6 ft range prevails over the
remainder of the open waters off the coast of Mexico. Light and
variable winds with seas 2 ft or less prevails across the Gulf of
California. 

A cold front will move into the waters off Baja California Norte
into the northern Gulf of California tonight into Mon, then 
dissipate by Tue. A large set of long period southerly swell will
continue to move into the Mexican offshore waters through Mon 
before mixing with northwest swell beginning on Mon night. 
Another weak cold front may move across Baja California Norte 
and the northern Gulf of California by mid week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail across the area. Seas in the 4-7 
ft range prevails over the offshore waters N of 02N, while seas
are reaching 8 ft in SW swell S of 02N.  

Mainly light to gentle SW monsoon flow will prevail across most 
of the region for the next several days. Large cross- equatorial 
southwest swell off Ecuador will move into the outer offshore 
waters of Central America beginning tonight and into the middle 
part of the upcoming week. 

Deep atmospheric moisture, along with favorable large scale lift
over this region will help contribute to the development of 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms well into the 
upcoming week. Some of this activity may produce heavy rain and 
strong gusty winds.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Latest surface observations indicate gentle to moderate
tradewinds prevail N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 20N with
seas in the 6-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds with seas in
the 8-11 ft range prevails west of a cold front which extends 
from 30N123W to 27N130W. Elsewhere N of 20N, light to gentle
winds with seas in the 5-7 ft range prevails. Light to gentle
winds prevail S of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. 

The cold front will continue to move eastward across the waters 
north of 20N today. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell will follow 
the front across the waters north of 20N. High pressure will 
build in the wake of the front. This will help tighten the
pressure gradient and bring an increase in tradewinds across the
tradewinds belt N of the ITCZ to around 20N. The combination of 
the northerly swell, southerly swell and local winds will build 
seas to 8 ft over much of the trade wind belt west of 120W by the
middle of the week.


$$
AL