000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190147
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
025 UTC Sun May 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N81W to 1007 mb low
pressure near 12N95W to 07N120W. The ITCZ continues from 07N120W
to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 nm
of the low pressure. Scattered moderate convection was ongoing
from 05N to 08N between 105W and 125W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Weak ridging extends across the offshore waters of Baja
California and the Gulf of California, supporting gentle to
moderate NW flow. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in open waters off Baja 
California due primarily to southerly swell, but also with a
component of NW swell. Light breezes persist farther south over 
the offshore waters of southern Mexico. An earlier altimeter 
satellite pass also indicated seas were 5 to 7 ft in these 
waters, likely due to lingering SW swell.

The ridge will dissipate through early Sun ahead of an 
approaching cold front that will move into the waters off Baja 
California Norte into the northern Gulf of California later on Sun
into Mon, then dissipate by Tue. A large set of long period 
southerly swell will continue to move into the Mexican offshore 
waters through Mon before mixing with northwest swell beginning 
on Mon night. Looking ahead, another weak cold front may move 
across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California 
by mid week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate onshore
winds across most of the region for the next several days. Large
cross-equatorial southwest swell off Ecuador will move into the 
outer offshore waters of Central America late Sun into mid week. 

Deep atmospheric moisture, within a relatively broad area of 
low pressure, will remain across just about the entire offshore 
waters of these areas well into next week along with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of which can produce 
very heavy rain and strong gusty winds.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A cold front currently extending from 30N131W to 27N140W will
continue to move eastward across the waters north of 20N through
Sun. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell will follow the front across
the area north of 20N as well. High pressure will follow across 
the waters north of 20N in the wake of the front starting Sun. 
This will allow relatively weak trade winds deeper into the 
tropics and west of 130W in increase accordingly. The combination
of the northerly swell, a component of southerly swell and local
winds will allow seas to build through the trade wind belt west 
of 120W through mid week. Increased trade wind convergence will 
also allow an increase in showers and thunderstorms along the 
ITCZ from early to mid week. 

$$
Christensen