748 
AXPZ20 KNHC 181500
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1304 UTC Sat May 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N81W to 12N99W to
07.5N117W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N117W to 05N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 02N
to 14N between 81W and 96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted from 05N to 09N between 103W and 124W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 03N
to 07N between 128W and 140W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

High pressure centered west of the area near 28N126W extends a
ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo islands, while a trough
extends across the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient
between these features is resulting in moderate to fresh winds
west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas over this area are in
the 7-9 ft range in a mix of SW and NW swell. Light to gentle 
winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range prevail across the remainder
of the open waters off Mexico. Light and variable winds with 
seas of 2 ft or less prevail across the Gulf of California. The
area of high pressure will weaken today. This will enable a cold
front to move across the waters off Baja California Norte into 
the northern Gulf of California Sun into Mon. This will increase
winds across the northern Gulf of California Sun night and Mon. The
front will dissipate by Tue, with winds diminishing across the
northern Gulf of California. High pres building in the wake of 
the front.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate onshore
winds across most of the region for the next several days. Large
cross-equatorial southwest swell off Ecuador will move into the 
outer offshore waters of Central America late Sun into mid week. 

Deep atmospheric moisture, within a relatively broad area of 
low pressure, will remain across just about the entire offshore 
waters of these areas well into next week along with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of which can produce 
very heavy rain and strong gusty winds.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure of 1021 mb is centered across the northern waters
near 28N126W. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N
and west of 120W, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. A cold front has
moved into the far NW waters. Light to gentle winds are noted
west of the front as well as within 60 nm E of the front. Light
to gentle anticyclonic wind flow prevails across the remainder of
the water N of 20N, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. The area of
high pressure will weaken today and Sun. The will enable to cold
front to move across the northern forecast waters. This front
will usher in a new set of NW swell into the forecast area,
peaking near 11 ft N of 28N between 120W and 130W by early Mon.
high pres will build in the wake of the front. 

$$
AL