000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180200
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 UTC Sat May 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W
to 1009 mb low pressure near 11N97W to another 1009 mb low pressure
near 11N115W. The ITCZ extends from 11N115W to beyond 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate is ongoing from 04N to 08N between 83W and 
91W. Scattered moderate convection is also evident within 60 nm 
either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 105W and 
115W, and within 30 nm either side of ITCZ west of 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Fresh to strong NW winds are evident in ship observations within
90 nm of the coast of Baja California Norte, as high pressure 
builds into the region from the west in the wake of a cold front
that moved through the region earlier. The stronger winds will
likely spread southward as far as Cabo San Lazaro through the
into the overnight hours. Strong winds following the front over 
the northern Gulf of California have diminished. In addition to 
increased winds off Baja California, seas are building north of 
Punta Eugenia. NW swell and local wind waves are added to already
present longer period southerly swell lingering over the 
offshore waters off Baja California Norte, resulting in combined 
seas of 8 to 9 ft through late Sat, spreading as far south as 
Cabo San Lazaro before subsiding Sat night. 

Looking ahead, a second cold front will reach Baja California 
Norte late on Sun, resulting in a brief period of strong NW winds
in the northern Gulf of California Sun night and Mon, and over 
offshore waters of Baja California Mon and Tue. Long- period 
southerly swell will impact the entire Mexican offshore zones Sat
through Tue with combined seas reaching 8 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate onshore
winds across most of the region for the next several days.  
Large cross-equatorial SW swell will build seas to the west of 
Ecuador Fri night through early next week. No tropical cyclone 
activity is expected for at least the next several days in the 
Central American offshore zones.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure centered at 30N128W 
with a ridge extending east-southeastward to the Revillagigedo 
Islands. A weak pressure gradient south of the ridge contributes 
toward NE tradewinds in the deep tropics of moderate to fresh 
strength, particularly west 130W. This is allowing seas to reach 
as high as 8 ft in the area of fresh trade winds near the ITCZ 
west of 135W. A weak cold front will reach 30N140W early Sat, 
though winds associated with it will be fresh or weaker. 
Associated long- period NW swell will sweep across the waters 
north of 15N with peak seas of 8 to 9 ft beginning on Sat. 

$$
Christensen