000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172109 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2108 UTC Fri May 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to 1009 mb low pressure near 09N97W to another 1009 mb low pressure near 09N106W to 08.5N110W. The ITCZ extends from that point to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate is ongoing from 05N to 08N between 81W and 87W and from 08N to 12N between 90W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is also evident within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 110W and 120W, and within 90 nm either side of ITCZ west of 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong NW winds are evident in ship observations within 90 nm of the coast of Baja California Norte, as high pressure builds into the region from the west in the wake of a cold front that moved through the region earlier. The stronger winds will likely spread southward as far as Cabo San Lazaro through the evening. Strong winds following the front over the northern Gulf of California have diminished. The front is now dissipating over the central Gulf of California and over the Sonoran desert. In addition to increased winds off Baja California, seas are building north of Punta Eugenia. NW swell and local wind waves are added to already present longer period southerly swell lingering over the offshore waters off Baja California Norte, resulting in combined seas of 8 to 9 ft through late Sat, spreading as far south as Cabo San Lazaro before subsiding Sat night. Looking ahead, a second cold front will reach Baja California Norte late on Sun, resulting in a brief period of strong NW winds in the northern Gulf of California Sun night and Mon, and over offshore waters of Baja California Mon and Tue. Long- period southerly swell will impact the entire Mexican offshore zones Sat through Tue with combined seas reaching 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate onshore winds across most of the region for the next several days. Large cross-equatorial SW swell will build seas to the west of Ecuador Fri night through early next week. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for at least the next several days in the Central American offshore zones. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered at 31N128W with a ridge extending east-southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. A weak pressure gradient south of the ridge contributes toward NE tradewinds in the deep tropics of moderate to fresh strength, particularly west 130W. This is allowing seas to reach as high as 8 ft in the area of fresh trade winds near the ITCZ west of 135W. A weak cold front will reach 30N140W early Sat, though winds associated with it will be fresh or weaker. Associated long- period NW swell will sweep across the waters north of 15N with peak seas of 8 to 9 ft beginning on Sat. $$ Christensen