000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171429 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1430 UTC Fri May 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to 11N96W to 08N108W. The ITCZ extends from that point to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection exists north of 05N east of 100W, within 120 nm of the axis from 105N to 120W, and within 120 nm of the axis west of 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front is moving across the northern Gulf of California this morning. As high pressure builds in behind the front, NW winds west of Baja California will be enhanced today and Sat. Ship 3EUS indicated 25 kt NNW winds near Point Eugenia this morning. A second cold front will reach Baja California Norte late on Sun, resulting in a brief period of strong NW winds in the northern Gulf of California Sun night and Mon. Behind this second front, high pressure builds in again and enhances the NW winds west of Baja California on Mon and Tue. Substantial long-period S swell will impact the entire Mexican offshore zones Sat through Tue. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for at least the next several days in the Mexican offshore zones. Agricultural fires continue over southern Mexico. However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping the associated smoke over land and no significant impact on visibility is occurring over the Mexican offshore waters at this time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate onshore winds across most of the region for the next several days. The Gulf of Papagayo will experience a weak gap wind event Sun through Tue. Large cross-equatorial SW swell will build seas to the west of Ecuador Fri night through early next week. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for at least the next several days in the Central American offshore zones. Agricultural fires continue over northern Central America. However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping the associated smoke over land and no significant impact on visibility is occurring over the offshore waters at this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1024 mb high is centered at 30N131W with a ridge extending east-southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. A weak pressure gradient south of the ridge contributes toward NE tradewinds of moderate to fresh strength. A pair of altimeter passes indicated higher seas - around 8 ft in mixed NE and SE swell - than suggested by guidance in the vicinity of 10N135W. A weak cold front will reach our NW corner of 30N140W early Sat, though winds associated with it will be fresh or weaker. An associated long- period NW swell will sweep across the waters north of 15N with peak seas of 8 to 9 ft beginning on Sat. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for at least the next several days over the high seas area, though an area of disturbed weather along the monsoon trough has a low potential for development through five days. $$ Landsea