000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170249 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 052 UTC Fri May 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N93W to 1010 mb low pressure near 09N101W to 07N110W. The ITCZ extends from 07N110W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 300 nm NW and 240 nm SE of the low pressure. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving onshore in Baja California Norte, weakening ridging over the area north of 20N. This is resulting in gentle to moderate winds off Baja California, as well as light breezes over the Gulf of California except for north of 29N where fresh gap winds are ongoing. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in open waters. Farther south, light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas persist in modest SW swell. Smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico continues to produces areas of smoke over offshore waters between Manzanillo and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, although maybe not as thick as earlier. For the forecast, fresh to strong westerly gap winds will pulse over the northern Gulf of California overnight as the cold front pushes trough the region. Combined seas will build off the coast of Baja California mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro late Fri through Sat. This will primarily be due to SW lingering in the region, but with additions of shorter period NW swell also. Farther south, smoke will continue to impact visibility along the coast between Manzanillo and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, another front will move across Baja California early on Mon brining another round of NW swell to the waters off Baja California through next week, and strong gap winds to the northern Gulf of California by late Tue. Tropical cyclone activity is very unlikely in the Mexican offshore waters through at least the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern will maintain generally gentle onshore wind flow across the region through Sat before moderate to fresh offshore gap winds develop across the Papagayo region. Large cross-equatorial SW swell will build seas to the west of Ecuador Fri night through early next week. Tropical cyclone activity is very unlikely in the Central American offshores through at least the next several days. Agricultural fires continue over northern Central America. However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping the associated smoke over land and no significant impact on visibility is occurring over the offshore waters at this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak cold front from 30N116W to 24N129W will move across the waters north of 20N through Fri. A weak ridge prevails north of 15N west of 115W and contributes toward NE trade winds of only fresh breeze or weaker south of the ridge. The cold front will progress eastward through Fri with winds and seas of little consequence. A second cold front will reach 30N140W Sat afternoon and move east-southeast, reaching northern Baja California early on Mon. While the winds associated with the front should remain fresh breeze or less, large NW swell will occur north of 20N through early next week. Elsewhere large cross- equatorial SW swell will build seas to the east of 120W Fri night through early next week. $$ Christensen