000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162153 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2030 UTC Thu May 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N93W to 1009 mb low pressure near 09N100W to 07N110W. The ITCZ extends from 07N110W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 12N between 85W and 97W, and from 05N to 12N between 97W and 110W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front is entering the offshore waters off Baja California Norte, weakening ridging over the area north of 20N. This is resulting in gentle to moderate winds off Baja California, as well as light breezes over the Gulf of California except for north of 29N where fresh gap winds are ongoing. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in open waters. Farther south, light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas persist in modest SW swell. Smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico continues to produces areas of smoke over offshore waters between Manzanillo and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, although maybe not as thick as earlier. For the forecast, fresh to strong westerly gap winds will pulse over the northern Gulf of California overnight as the cold front pushes trough the region. Long period swell will also follow the front off the coast of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro from Fri through late Sat. Farther south, smoke will continue to impact visibility along the coast between Manzanillo and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, another front will move across Baja California early on Mon brining another round of NW swell to the waters off Baja California through next week, and strong gap winds to the northern Gulf of California by late Tue. Tropical cyclone activity is very unlikely in the Mexican offshore waters through at least the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern will maintain generally gentle onshore wind flow across the region through Sat before moderate to fresh offshore gap winds develop across the Papagayo region. Large cross-equatorial SW swell will build seas to the west of Ecuador Fri night through early next week. Tropical cyclone activity is very unlikely in the Central American offshores through at least the next several days. Agricultural fires continue over northern Central America. However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping the associated smoke over land and no significant impact on visibility is occurring over the offshore waters at this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak cold front from 30N117W to 24N130W to 24N135W will move across the waters north of 20N through Fri. A weak ridge prevails N of 15N W of 113W and contributes toward NE trade winds of only fresh breeze or weaker south of the ridge. The cold front will progress eastward through Fri with winds and seas of little consequence. A second cold front will reach our NW corner at 30N140W on Sat afternoon and move east-southeast, reaching northern Baja California early on Mon. While the winds associated with the front should remain fresh breeze or quieter, large NW swell will occur N of 20N through early next week. Elsewhere large cross-equatorial SW swell will build seas to the east of 120W Fri night through early next week. Tropical cyclone activity is unlikely in the High Seas waters through the next several days. $$ Christensen