000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161551 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu May 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N87W to 1009 mb low pressure near 09N100W to 08N106W. The ITCZ extends from 08N106W to 05N116W to 05N125W to 03N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 10N to 14N between 92W and 99W, from 05N to 11N between 101W and 108W, and from 03N to 06N between 117W and 122W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 02N to 11N E of 124W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge prevails N of 15N W of 113W, contributing towards mainly NW moderate winds west of Baja California. These winds are expected to increase to fresh tonight as a cold front pushes trough the area with seas to 8 ft in NW swell. Winds will further increase to strong N of Cabo San Lazaro Fri night as high pressure builds behind the front. Winds will diminish to fresh early on Sat and seas will subside to less than 8 ft on Sat night. Farther south, smoke will continue to impact visibility along the coast between Manzanillo and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, another front will move across Baja California early on Mon with swell with seas to 10 ft affecting the offshores of Baja through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are likely S of 26N within 60 nm of the coast. Tropical cyclone activity is unlikely in the Mexican offshores at least through the next several days. Gulf of California: Fresh to occasionally strong westerly gap winds will pulse over the northern Gulf of California today ahead of a cold front approaching the area from the west. Fresh to strong winds will also briefly follow the front over the northern Gulf of California tonight, briefly increasing to near gale force. Winds in the northern gulf will diminish to less than 20 kt Fri morning. Similar conditions will redevelop Sun night through late Mon morning as a second front pushes through. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern will maintain generally gentle onshore wind flow across the region through Sat before moderate to fresh offshore gap winds develop across the Papagayo region. Large cross-equatorial SW swell will build seas to the west of Ecuador Fri night through early next week. Tropical cyclone activity is very unlikely in the Central American offshores through at least the next several days. Agricultural fires continue over northern Central America. However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping the associated smoke over land and no significant impact on visibility is occurring over the offshore waters at this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak cold front from 30N120W to 25N128W to 24N134W will move across the waters north of 20N through Fri. A weak ridge prevails N of 15N W of 113W and contributes toward NE trade winds of only fresh breeze or weaker south of the ridge. The cold front will progress eastward through Fri with winds and seas of little consequence. A second cold front will reach our NW corner at 30N140W on Sat afternoon and move east-southeast, reaching northern Baja California early on Mon. While the winds associated with the front should remain fresh breeze or quieter, large NW swell will occur N of 20N through early next week. Elsewhere large cross-equatorial SW swell will build seas to the east of 120W Fri night through early next week. Tropical cyclone activity is unlikely in the High Seas waters through the next several days. $$ Ramos