000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160824 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0817 UTC Thu May 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 09N100W to 07N106W. The ITCZ extends from 07N106W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed north of 05N east of 103W, and within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 110W and 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge is present near 120W, contributing toward NW winds of only fresh breeze or weaker west of Baja California. After a cold front pushes through the area, building high pressure will enhance NW winds west of Baja California on Fri and Sat. Long period NW swell will also follow the front off the coast of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro from Fri through late Sat. Farther south, smoke will continue to impact visibility along the coast between Manzanillo and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Looking ahead, another front will move across Baja California through early next week. Tropical cyclone activity is unlikely in the Mexican offshores at least through the next several days. Gulf of California: Fresh to occasionally strong westerly gap winds will pulse over the northern Gulf of California today ahead of a cold front approaching the area from the west. Fresh to strong winds will also briefly follow the front over the northern Gulf of California tonight as well. Fri through Sun should be quiescent, followed by renewed strong breeze conditions as a second front pushes through. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern will maintain generally gentle onshore wind flow across the region through Sat before moderate offshore gap winds develop across the Papagayo region. Large cross- equatorial SW swell will build seas to the west of Ecuador Fri night through early next week. Tropical cyclone activity is very unlikely in the Central American offshores through at least the next several days. Agricultural fires continue over northern Central America. However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping the associated smoke over land and no significant impact on visibility is occurring over the offshore waters at this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak cold front from 30N124W to 25N140W will move across the waters north of 22N Thu. A modest ridge is present near 120W, contributing toward NE trade winds of only fresh breeze or weaker south of the ridge. The cold front will progress eastward on Fri and Sat with winds and seas of little consequence. A second cold front will reach our NW corner at 30N140W on Sat and move generally eastward. While the winds associated with the front should remain fresh breeze or quieter, large NW swell will become occur through early next week. Elsewhere large cross- equatorial SW swell will build seas to the east of 125W Fri night through early next week. Tropical cyclone activity is unlikely in the High Seas waters through the next several days. $$ Landsea