000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151555 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed May 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 08N90W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 09N95W to 07N104W to 05N114W. The ITCZ continues from 05N114W to 05N133W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 0N to 08N E of 83W, and from 06N to 09N between 88W and 92W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 12N between 94W and 106W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 11N W of 113W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high near 23N122W extends a weak ridge southeastward to NW of the Revillagigedo Islands near 20N112W. The pressure gradient between it and troughing over Baja California Peninsula will allow for generally moderate northwest winds to continue across the offshore waters N of 20N, except for locally fresh winds developing along the coast during the early evening and early morning hours. These conditions are forecast to change little through Thu. A cold front will approach the region from the west Thu afternoon, and move across Baja California Norte Thu night through early Fri. The pressure gradient ahead of the front will tighten enough to allow for SW to W gaps winds over the northern Gulf of California to increase to strong beginning on Wed night. These winds will briefly diminish on Thu morning before increasing back to strong Thu night. As the front sweeps eastward across the northern Gulf Thu night, strong northwest winds will briefly blast across far north portions of the Gulf before diminishing Fri morning. High pressure building in behind this front will bring fresh to strong northwest winds across the offshore waters of the Baja California Peninsula on Fri and Fri night. Seas will build to 8-10 ft during this time as NW swell propagates through these waters with the building high pressure. Today is the first day of the Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days in the Mexican Offshore Waters. Agricultural fires continue over southern and southeastern Mexico. Areas of smoke linger along the coastal waters of Mexican from Manzanillo to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern will maintain generally quiet wind conditions across the region through the forecast period, with generally onshore wind flow expected from the Papagayo region eastward through Fri night. Long period southwest swell will build waveheights to 8 ft west of Ecuador beginning on Fri and continuing through the weekend. Agricultural fires continue over northern Central America. However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping the associated smoke over land and no significant impact on visibility is occurring over the offshore waters at this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1020 mb high near 23N122W extends a ridge southeastward to near 20N112W. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is weak providing for mainly moderate to locally fresh northeast tradewinds between the ITCZ and 15N and to the W of 120W. These relatively quiet conditions will continue for the next several days. Latest altimeter data showed waveheights of 8-9 ft from 06N to 10N between 120W and 128W near stronger winds associated with convection. SW swell moving through this region will continue to slowly subside through Fri night. New long- period southwest will build waveheights east of about 125W beginning on Sat. $$ Ramos