000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150241 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed May 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Updated The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 mb low over Colombia near 10N74W to the coast at 08N78W to 08N85W to 08N98W to 06N106W to 06N113W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N118W TO 07N124W TO 07N130W to beyond the area at 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 210 nm south of the trough between 92W and 98W and within 90 nm of the trough east of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 270 nm south of the tough between 86W and 91W, within 180 nm south of the 101W and 105W, within 60 nm north of the the ITCZ between 105W and 108W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 110W and 115W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high near 28N124W extends a ridge southeastward to near 18N111W. The pressure gradient between it and troughing over Baja California Peninsula is allowing for generally moderate winds northwest winds to continue over the offshore waters, except for occasional locally fresh winds along the coast. These conditions are forecast to change little through most of Thu. As a cold front approaches from the west, the gradient ahead of it will tighten enough to allow for the present gentle to moderate south to southwest winds over the northern Gulf of California to increase to the strong range beginning on Wed night. These winds will briefly diminish to moderate to fresh winds on Thu afternoon before increasing back to strong winds Thu night, and while strong northwest winds develop over the far northern Gulf of California behind the front. Winds then become light and variable over the northern Gulf of California Fri afternoon. High pressure building in behind this front will bring fresh to strong northwest winds along and just to the west of the Baja California Peninsula on Fri and Fri night along with waveheights building to the range of 8-10 ft as a rather extensive set of northwest swell propagates through these waters with the building high pressure. The swell will begin to decay on Sat. No significant gap wind events are expected in the Gulf of California for the next several days. With the Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone season beginning tomorrow, no tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days in the Mexican Offshore Waters. Present southwest swell propagating through these waters will continue to gradually decay through late Wed night. Agricultural fires continue over southern and southeastern Mexico. Areas of smoke linger along the coastal waters of Mexican from Manzanillo to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern will maintain generally quiet wind conditions across the region through the forecast period. No significant gap wind events are anticipated over the Gulf of Papagayo or Gulf of Panama for at least the next several days. Large cross-equatorial southwest swell affecting the forecast waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will slowly decay through Thu night. Another round of long period southwest swell will build waveheights west of Ecuador beginning on Fri. Agricultural fires continue over northern Central America. However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping the associated smoke over land and no significant impact on visibility is occurring over the offshore waters at this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1018 mb high near 28N124W extends a ridge southeastward to near 18N111W. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is weak providing for mainly moderate to locally fresh northeast trades. These quiet conditions will continue for the next several days. Altimeter data from Tue afternoon showed waveheights of up to 8 ft near 18N118W as a result of southwest swell combining with northeast wind waves. The southwest swell will continue to slowly subside through Fri night. Another round of long-period southwest will build waveheights east of about 125W beginning on Sat. While the Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone season begins tomorrow, no tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days in the High Seas area. $$ Aguirre