000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue May 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 mb low over Colombia near 11N72W to the coast at 08N78W to 08N90W to 07N98W to 07N105W to 07N114W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N125W to 08N132W and to beyond the area at 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen within 180 nm south of the trough between 85W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm south of the tough between 102W and 106W, within 60 nm either side of the trough between 99W and 102W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 112W and 113W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high near 28N124W extends a ridge southeastward to near 18N111W. The pressure gradient between it and troughing over Baja California Peninsula is allowing for generally moderate winds northwest winds to continue over the offshore waters, except for occasional locally fresh winds along the coast. These conditions are forecast to change little through most of Thu. As a cold front approaches from the west, the gradient ahead of it will tighten enough to allow for the present gentle to moderate south to southwest winds to increase to the strong range beginning on Wed night. These winds will briefly diminish to moderate to fresh winds on Thu afternoon before increasing back to strong winds Thu night, and while strong northwest winds develop over the far northern Gulf of California behind the front. Winds then become light and variable over the northern Gulf of California Fri afternoon. High pressure building in behind this front will bring fresh to strong northwest winds along and just to the west of the Baja California Peninsula on Fri and Fri night along with waveheighte building to the range of 8-10 ft as a rather extensive set of northwest swell propagates through these waters with the building high pressure. The swell will begin to decay on Sat. No significant gap wind events are expected in the Gulf of California for the next several days. With the Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone season beginning tomorrow, no tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days in the Mexican Offshore Waters. Altimeter data from this afternoon showed waveheights of up to 8 ft in the southeastern Mexican waters as result of southwest swell moving through these waters. This swell will gradually decay through Wed night. Agricultural fires continue over southern and southeastern Mexico. Areas of smoke linger along the coastal waters of Mexican from Manzanillo to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern will maintain generally quiescent wind conditions across the region through the forecast period. No significant gap wind events are anticipated over the Gulf of Papagayo or Gulf of Panama for at least the next several days. Large cross-equatorial southwest swell affecting the forecast waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will slowly decay through Thu night. Another round of long period SW swell will build waveheights west of Ecuador beginning on Fri. Agricultural fires continue over northern Central America. However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping the associated smoke over land and no significant impact on visibility is occurring over the offshore waters at this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1021 mb high near 28N124W extends a ridge southeastward to near 18N111W. As the pressure gradient south of the ridge is weak, the northeast trades are fresh breeze or weaker. These quiet conditions will continue for the next several days. Altimeter data from this afternoon showed waveheights of up to 8 ft near 18N118W as a result of southwest swell combining with northeast wind waves. The southwest swell will continue to slowly subside through Fri night. Another round of long-period southwest will build waveheights east of about 125W beginning on Sat. While the Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone season begins tomorrow, no tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days in the High Seas area. $$ Aguirre