000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141516 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1335 UTC Tue May 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W to 07N116W. The ITCZ continues from there to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 180 nm south of the trough east of 100W, north of 12N east of 95W, and within 60 nm of the trough from 100W to 112W. Widely scattered convection exists within 120 nm north of the ITCZ west of 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high near 27N124W extends a ridge SE to near 14N105W and will maintain quiescent conditions through Thu. As a cold front approaches the offshore waters Thu, SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will be enhanced. After the weakening cold front passes Baja California Norte Thu night, building high pressure will produce a NW strong breeze just west of the peninsula as well as in the northern Gulf of California on Fri before subsiding on Sat. No significant gap wind events are expected in the Gulf of California for the next several days. With the Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone season beginning tomorrow, no tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days in the Mexican Offshore Waters. An altimeter pass at 1220 UTC this morning showed peak seas around 8 ft in the SE Mexican waters. These large SW swell moving through the regional waters are slowly subsiding during the forecast period. Agricultural fires continue over southern and southeastern Mexico. Areas of smoke linger along the coastal waters of Mexican from Manzanillo to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure pattern will maintain generally quiescent wind conditions across the region through the forecast period. No significant gap wind events are anticipated over the Gulf of Papagayo or Gulf of Panama for at least the next several days. A 0945 UTC altimeter pass showed peak seas in the Ecuador and Central America waters this morning. This large cross- equatorial SW swell affecting the forecast waters is slowly subsiding through Thu night. Another round of long period SW swell will cause seas to build west of Ecuador on Fri and Sat. Agricultural fires continue over northern Central America. However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping the associated smoke over land and no significant impact on visibility is occurring over the offshore waters at this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1019 mb high near 27N124W extends a ridge SE to near 14N105W. As the pressure gradient south of the ridge is weak, the NE trade winds are fresh breeze or weaker. These quiescent conditions will continue for the next several days. A 1400 UTC altimeter pass should peak sea near 8 ft in the vicinity of 10N120W as a result of moderate SW swell interacting with NE wind waves. The SW swell moving through the regional waters will continue to slowly subside during the forecast period. Another round of long-period SW swell will cause seas to build east of 125W beginning on Sat. While the Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone season begins tomorrow, no tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days in the High Seas area. $$ Landsea