000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140911 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue May 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low centered over NW Colombia near 10N73.5W TO 11.5N87W TO 08.5N97W TO 06N114W. The ITCZ continues from 06N114W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 00.5N TO 06N E OF 82.5W, from 04N TO 09N between 81W AND 99W, within 30 nm N and 90 nm S of trough between 102W and 112W, and within 240 nm N of ITCZ between 120W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad and weak ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure centered near 31N124W to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands near 16N110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over interior Mexico is supporting moderate NW winds over the Mexican offshore waters north of 18N, except fresh winds along the more prominent points along the peninsula such as Punta Eugenia, Cabo San Lazaro, Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes. Afternoon heating along the sections is expected to produce fresh to locally strong winds this afternoon and evening. The latest satellite-derived altimeter data showed seas of 5 to 7 ft across the offshore waters of Baja California, and 6 to 9 ft farther SE between Cabo Corrientes and the Revillagigedo Islands. Strong cross equatorial SW swell moving into the regional waters the past 48 hours has peaked and will begin to decay across the regional waters, and allow seas in these areas to subside by 1 to 2 feet by Thu. Farther southeast, light to gentle NW to W winds prevail across the offshore waters, with the SW swell producing seas of 7-10 ft. Smoke from agricultural and forest fires over much of southern Mexico is being transported by low level winds toward the SE and E across the nearshore waters from Manzanillo to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Later this week, a weakening cold front will move eastward into the waters off Baja California Norte Thu through Fri. The main impact of this system currently appears to be NW swell moving into the waters off Baja California Norte, causing seas to build from 5 to 7 ft Thu to between 7 and 9 ft Fri. Fresh to strong SW gap winds will funnel into the northern portion of the Gulf of California Wed night and Thu, and then briefly shift out of NW Thu night at 20-25 kt as the front moves into mainland Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A very weak pressure gradient continues across the far eastern Pacific tonight. Recent scatterometer data showed light to gentle southwest to west onshore wind flow prevailing across most of the waters. The main marine impact across the region continues to be long period SW swell, which will support offshore wave heights of 6 to 9 ft through this evening before slowly beginning to subside. Otherwise, little change in the wind regime is expected for the next few days. Agricultural fires continue over northern Central America. However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping the associated smoke over land and no significant impact on visibility is occurring over the offshore waters at this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad and weak ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure system centered near 31N124W SE to near 16N110W. The ridge supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 20N and to the west of 115W. The high will shift slowly southeastward and weaken through Wed, ahead of a weak front presently approaching the NW corner of the discussion area. The front is expected to sweep across 30N140W this evening, then continue E across the central and eastern sections of the area through Fri as it weakens. The main impact from this system will likely be W to NW swell bringing wave heights in the range of 6- 8 ft to the north of 25N and west of 130W through Wed. The highest seas will shift to north of 28N and east of 130W Thu, then begin to build to 7-9 ft late Thu due to the arrival of new NW swell. Wave heights are in the range of 8 to 10 ft generally S of 20N and east of 130W. This area of seas is attributable to large SW swell propagating through this area. The swell has peaked across this area and will begin to slowly subside today, with seas to subside below 8 ft by Wed evening. The next round of long period SW swell will cross the equator Fri night. $$ Stripling