000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140231 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 021 UTC Tue May 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0140 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low centered over NW Colombia near 11N73W to 06N81W to 08N96W to 06N116W. The ITCZ continues from 06N116W to 06N128W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 04N E of 80W, from 04N to 08N between 80W and 96W and within 60 nm either side of a line from 06.5N103W to 06.5N117W to 08.5N130W to 10.5N134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad and weak ridge extends from a 1019 mb high pressure centered near 29N129W to S of Acapulco Mexico near 12N100W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over interior Mexico is supporting moderate NW winds over the Mexican offshore waters north of 20N. However, winds along the prominent coastal capes and points such as Punta Eugenia, Cabo San Lazaro, Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes will be fresh to locally strong through Tue. The latest satellite-derived sea height data showed seas of 4 to 6 ft in the offshore waters of Baja California, and 5 to 7 ft farther SE between Cabo Corrientes and the Revillagigedo Islands. SW swell arriving from the Southern Hemisphere have begun to decay which will allow seas in these areas to subside 1 to 2 feet by Thu. Farther southeast, smoke from agricultural and forest fires over much of southern Mexico is being drawn northward over land by low-level winds. This is limiting the coverage of smoke to the immediate coast of the Mexican State of Guerrero. Beyond Wed, a weakening front will move into the waters off Baja California Norte Thu through Fri. The main impact of this system currently appears to be NW swell moving into the waters off Baja California Norte, causing seas to build from 5 to 7 ft Thu to between 7 and 9 ft Fri. Fresh to strong SW gap winds will funnel into the northern portion of the Gulf of California Wed night and Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A very weak pressure gradient continues across the far eastern Pacific tonight. Recent scatterometer data showed light to gentle southwest to west onshore wind flow prevailing across most of the waters. The main marine impact across the region continues to be long period SW swell, which will support offshore wave heights of 6 to 9 ft through Wed. Otherwise, little change in the wind regime is expected for the next few days. Deep convection is still affecting the waters W of the coast of Colombia. This activity is expected to produce very heavy rainfall as indicated in model precipitation fields. The convection is forecast to continue for at least the next 24 to 48 hours as an active monsoon trough remains nearby. Agricultural fires are occurring over northern Central America. However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping the associated smoke over land and no significant impact on visibility is occurring over the offshore waters at this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad and weak ridge extends from a 1019 mb high pressure system centered near 29N129W SE to S of Acapulco Mexico near 12N100W. The ridge supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 15N and to the west of 110W. The high will shift slowly southeastward and weaken through Wed, ahead of a weak front presently approaching the NW corner of the discussion area. The front is expected to pass 30N140W Tue night, then continue E across the central and eastern sections of the area through Fri as it weakens. The main impact from this system will likely be W to NW swell bringing wave heights in the range of 5-7 ft to the north of 25N and west of 130W through Wed. The highest seas will shift to north of 28N and east of 130W Thu, then begin to build to 7-9 ft late Thu due to the arrival of a new set of NW swell. Wave heights are in the range of 8 to 9 ft generally S of 20N and east of 130W. This area of seas is attributable to large SW swell propagating through this area. The swell have begun to decay and will allow this area of seas to subside below 8 ft by Wed evening. The next round of long period SW swell will cross the equator Fri night. $$ CAM