000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130919
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon May 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO 08N90W TO 07.5N104W TO 
06.5N118W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N118W TO 04N130W TO 
07.5N138W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 85W and 115W. Widely 
scattered moderate to strong convection noted within 150 nm N of 
the ITCZ between 120W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A broad and weak ridge extends from 1020 mb high pressure 
centered near 32N128W southeastward through the Revillagigedo 
Islands to near 14N106W. Despite a 1001 mb low centered over 
central Mexico, the pressure gradient between it and the ridge 
is only sufficient enough to maintain moderate NWly winds across 
the Mexican offshore waters north of 20N. However, the exception 
to this will occur along the prominent coastal capes and points 
such as Punta Eugenia, Cabo San Lazaro, Cabo San Lucas and Cabo 
Corrientes, where fresh or even briefly strong NW winds are 
possible through Tue. Overnight satellite altimeter data 
suggested seas of 4-6 ft occurring across the offshore waters of 
Baja California, and 6 to 8 ft farther southeast between Cabo 
Corrientes and the Revillagigedo Islands. These higher seas are 
due to cross equatorial SW swell reach the area and mixing with 
moderate northerly wind waves. Little change in this wind 
pattern is expected through Tue or Wed, while seas while seas 
will increase area-wide by about 1 ft today as the SW swell 
peaks today through this evening, then gradually subside through 
Wed. 

Farther southeast, smoke from agricultural and forest fires over 
much of southern Mexico is impacting the offshore waters along 
the coast of Mexico from the southeast part of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec to near Manzanillo, and will periodically reduce 
visibilities to near 5 nm.

Marine conditions across the Gulf of California are fairly 
tranquil tonight, with gentle southerly winds across far north 
portions and gentle to moderate NW winds across the south half 
of the basin. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will move 
into the waters off Baja California Norte Thu into Fri. The main 
impact of this system currently appears to be NW swell of 5 to 7 
ft moving into the waters off Baja California Norte, while fresh 
to strong SW gap winds spill into the northern portion of the 
Gulf of California. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A very weak pressure gradient continues across the far eastern 
Pacific tonight. Recent scatterometer data showed light to 
gentle SW to W onshore wind flow prevailing across most of the 
waters. The main marine impact across the region continues to be 
long period SW swell, which will support offshore wave heights 
of 6 to 9 ft through mid week. Large and powerful surf should be 
expected across the coasts of Central and South America and 
southeastern Mexico. Otherwise, little change in the wind regime 
is expected for the next few days. Occasional showers and 
thunderstorms will flare off the coast from western Panama to 
southern Nicaragua. 

Agricultural fires are occurring over northern Central America. 
However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping the 
associated smoke over land and no substantial impact on 
visibility is occurring over the offshore waters at this time.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad and weak ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure 
system centered 31N142W southeastward to beyond the 
Revillagigedo Islands. This is producing a relatively weak 
pressure pattern, and only moderate northeast to east winds are 
occurring between the ITCZ and 15N and to the west of 110W. The 
high will shift slowly southeastward and weaken through Wed, 
ahead of a weak front which will stall near 30N140W through Mon 
then dissipate. The main impact will likely be W to NW swell of 
5 to 7 ft north of 25N and west of 130W through early next week. 
Looking ahead, a weak trough may form along the ITCZ near 135W 
early in the week, allowing moderate to fresh trades from 10N to 
20N west of 130W through mid week.

Waveheights are in the range of 8-10 ft to the S of 15N east of 
135W are from large SW swell propagating through this area. The 
swell will cover the the waters to south of 20N and east of 125W 
through early Tue before slowly decaying below 8 ft by Wed.

$$
Stripling