000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130248
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
230 UTC Mon May 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
The monsoon trough extends from eastern Panama near 07.5N78W to
07N110W. The intertropical convergence zone reaches from 07N110W
to 06N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 85W and
90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed
within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between 90W and 95W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure centered near 34N140W
southeastward through the Revillagigedo Islands. Despite a 1001
mb low centered over central Mexico, the ridge is weak enough to
keep gentle to moderate winds across the Mexican offshore waters
north of 20N. The exception will be off prominent coastal
positions such as Punta Eugenia, Cabo San Lucas and Cabo 
Corrientes where fresh or even briefly strong NW winds are 
possible through Mon. An earlier Cryosat satellite altimeter 
pass indicated seas to at least 8 ft off Cabo Corrientes. This is
due in part to the localized enhanced winds, but moreover due to
long period SW swell starting to reach into the area. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms on the periphery of an upper low 
centered over Nogales Arizona may reach into the far northern 
Gulf of California tonight. 

Farther south, smoke from agricultural and forest fires over 
much of southern Mexico is impacting the offshore waters along 
the coast of Mexico from the southeast part of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec to near Manzanillo.

For the forecast, SW swell of 8 to 9 ft will persist from the 
Revillagigedo Islands through Cabo Corrientes and as far south as
off Acapulco through Tue before decaying below 8 ft. Looking 
ahead, a weak frontal boundary may moving into the waters off 
Baja California Norte Thu into Fri. The main impact for now 
appearing to be NW swell of 5 to 7 ft off Baja California Norte 
and fresh to strong gap winds into the northern portion of the 
Gulf of California. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The main marine impact across the region continues to be long 
period southwest swell, which will support offshore wave heights
of 6 to 9 ft through mid week. High surf should be expected 
across the coasts of Central and South America and southeastern 
Mexico. Otherwise, the present synoptic pattern will allow light
to gentle breezes to persist. Occasional showers and 
thunderstorms will flare off the coast from western Panama to 
southern Nicaragua. 

Agricultural fires are occurring over northern Central America. 
However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping the 
associated smoke onshore and no substantial impact on visibility 
is occurring over the offshore waters at this time.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad and weak ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure
system centered 33N140W southeastward to the Revillagigedo
Islands. This is producing a relatively weak pressure pattern, 
and only moderate northeast to east winds are occurring between 
the ITCZ and 15N and to the west of 110W. The high will shift 
slowly southeastward and weaken through Wed, ahead of a weak
front which will stall near 30N140W through Mon then dissipate.
The main impact will likely be W to NW swell of 5 to 7 ft north
of 25N and west of 130W through early next week. Looking ahead, a
weak trough may form along the ITCZ near 135W early in the week,
allowing moderate to fresh trades from 10N to 20N west of 130W
through mid week.

Waveheights are in the range of 8-10 ft to the S of 10N east of
135W are from a large set of southwest swell propagating through
this area. The swell will cover the the waters to south of 20N 
and east of 125W through early Tue before slowly decaying below 8
ft by Wed.

$$
Christensen