000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121606
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun May 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from northwest Colombia near 10N74W to 08N100W
to 08N114W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N124W to 08N135W and
to beyond the area at 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is seen within 150 nm south of the ITCZ between 125W
and 130W, within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 121W and 125W,
within 90 nm north of the trough between 91W and 93W, within 
60 nm north of the trough between 82W and 84W and within 60 nm 
south of the trough between 91W and 93W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 30 nm of the trough between 111W and
114W and also between 116W and 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The earlier described upper-level low that was over the 
far northern portion of Baja California Norte has moved inland 
the northwest section of Mexico. Its associated surface low 
is analyzed as weakening 1013 mb low at 30N116W, with a trough 
extending from it to the Bahia de Sabastian, and from there to 
24N115W and to 24N120W. No significant convection is observed
with the low and trough. The trough will continue to drift
eastward across the Baja through while gradually dissipating. 
This will leave weak ridging place over the waters north of 15N.
The associated gradient will bring winds of moderate speeds
across the offshore waters of Baja California through most of
the upcoming week. A small area of winds may pulse to 15-20 kt 
between the ridge and Cabo Corrientes, and just offshore of Cabo 
San Lucas. 

A weak and small cyclonic swirl of low-level clouds is evident 
in the first visible satellite images to be within 50 nm south 
of the coast of Manzanillo. Isolated showers are possible with
this swirl as it weakens with time.

The main marine impact will continue to be long-period southwest
SW swell propagating through the open waters off Mexico. This
swell is bringing high surf along the Mexican coast. Overnight 
altimeter data across the region revealed wave heights of 6-8 ft
with the swell across the waters off of central Mexico, and 4-7 
ft across the offshore waters of Baja California. Little change 
is forecast with these waveheights through Tue night before 
they begin to slowly subside through rest of the upcoming week 
as another slightly smaller pulse of southwest swell moves into 
the region.

Agricultural fires persist over of southern Mexico and the 
associated smoke is producing hazy conditions over the offshore 
waters along the coast of Mexico from the southeast part of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec to near Manzanillo. The haze will most likely
remain through at least Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The main marine impact across the region continues to be long 
period southwest swell, which will support offshore wave heights
of 6 to 9 ft through mid week. High surf should be expected 
across the coasts of Central and South America and southeastern 
Mexico. Otherwise, the present synoptic pattern will allow light
to gentle breezes to persist. Occasional showers and 
thunderstorms will flare off the coast from western Panama to 
southern Nicaragua. 

Agricultural fires are occurring over northern Central America. 
However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping the 
associated smoke onshore and no substantial impact on visibility 
is occurring over the offshore waters at this time.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad and weak ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure
system centered 32N141W southeastward to near 14N108W. This is 
producing a relatively weak pressure pattern, and only moderate 
northeast to east winds are occurring between the ITCZ and 16N
and to the west of about 109W. The high will shift slowly 
southeastward and weaken through Wed, with little change 
expected with these winds.

Waveheights are in the range of 8-10 ft to the S of 06N and 
between 120W and 133W from a large set of southwest swell
propagating through this area. The swell will cover the 
the waters to south of 20N and east of 125W through early Tue 
before slowly decaying below 8 ft by Wed.

$$
Aguirre