000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120917 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun May 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 10N74W TO 09.5N92W TO 08N112W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N114W TO 07N124W TO 08.5N135W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from within 120 nm of the coast between 83W and 94W, from 04N to 09N between 86W and 109W, and from 05N to 11N between 120W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Deep layer low pressure continues to sink slowly SSE across the far northern portion of Baja California Norte. A weak 1014 mb surface low is analyzed nearly directly below this upper low, near 30N115W. The weak remnants of an old cold front are analyzed as a surface trough extending southward from the low across Punta Eugenia to 24N114W to 20N125W. This trough will continue to drift east across the Baja Peninsula overnight and gradually dissipate. This will leave weak ridging place over the waters north of 15N, and produce moderate NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California Sun through midweek. A small area of winds may pulse to 15 to 20 kt between the ridge and Cabo Corrientes, and just offshore of Cabo San Lucas. The main marine impact will continue to be long period SW swell propagating through the open waters off Mexico, producing high surf along the coastlines and outer reefs. Overnight altimeter data across the region showed seas of 6-8 ft in this SW swell across the waters off of central Mexico, and 4-7 ft across the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas are expected to increase about 1 ft region wide today through Monday as the peak of this swell event propagate into the area waters. Seas will then subside very slowly through Wed as another slightly smaller pulse of SW swell moves into the region. Agricultural fires persist over southern Mexico and the associated smoke is producing hazy conditions over the offshore waters along the coast of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, occasionally reducing visibilities below 5 nm. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The main marine impact across the region continues to be long period SW swell, which will support offshore wave heights of 6 to 9 ft through mid week. High surf should be expected across the coasts of Central and South America and southeastern Mexico. Otherwise, the pattern will allow light to gentle breezes to persist. Occasional showers and thunderstorms will flare off the coast from western Panama to southern Nicaragua. Agricultural fires are occurring over northern Central America. However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping the associated smoke onshore and no substantial impact on visibility is occurring over the offshore waters at this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad and weak ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure near 35N140W southeastward to near 14N108W. This is producing a relatively weak pressure pattern, and only moderate tradewinds are noted in recent scatterometer data between the ITCZ and 15N, to the W of 110W. The high will slide slowly SE and weaken through midweek to maintain these general wind conditions. West of 120W, seas are generally running 6-8 ft across the tradewind belt, in a broad mix of swell. However, overnight satellite altimeter data showed seas to 8-10 ft to the S of 05N and between 120W and 133W as SW swell is peaking across this area. SW swell producing seas in excess of 8 ft will cover the region south of 20N and east of 125W through early Tue before slowly decaying below 8 ft by Wed. $$ Stripling