000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120213 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 213 UTC Sun May 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 11N86W to 06N110W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 06N110W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 97W and 103W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Deep layer low pressure continues to move slowly across the far northern portion of Baja California Norte into southwest Arizona. A surface trough reaching from the associate weak low pressure over southern California through Punta Eugenia will drift east and dissipate through tonight. This will leave weak ridging place over the waters north of 15N. A small area of winds may pulse to 15 to 20 kt between the ridge and Cabo Corrientes, but otherwise this pattern will support only gentle to moderate winds across the Mexican offshore waters through the middle of next week. The main issue will continue to be long period SW swell propagating through the open waters off Mexico, allowing the potential for high surf along the coastlines and outer reefs. Agricultural fires persist over southern Mexico and the associated smoke is producing conditions over the offshore waters along the coast of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, occasionally reducing visibilities to 3 to 5 nm. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The main issue continues to be long period SW swell propagating into the region, supporting wave heights to 6 to 9 ft through mid week. High surf should be expected across the coasts of Central and South America and to near southeastern Mexico. Otherwise, the pattern will allow light to gentle breezes to persist. Occasional showers and thunderstorms will flare off the coast from western Panama to southern Nicaragua. Agricultural fires are occurring over northern Central America. However, the low-level southerly flow is generally keeping haze and smoke onshore and no substantial impact on visibility is occurring over the offshore waters at this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure near 24N140W through the Revillagigedo Islands. This is a relatively weak pressure pattern, and only gentle to moderate winds are noted on recent scatterometer passes north of 10N, with weaker winds noted farther south in buoy observations. The subdued trade wind convergence is resulting in no significant shower or thunderstorm activity along the ITCZ. Recent altimeter satellite passes confirm the presence of seas to 8 ft mainly south of 05N and east of 130W. This is the result of persistent long-period SW swell moving across the equator into the region. Swell in excess of 8 ft will cover the region south of 20N and east of 125W through early next week before decaying below 8 ft through early next week. $$ Christensen