000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111805 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat May 11 2019 Updated ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Updated A trough extends from a 1011 mb low over Colombia near 10N71W to Panama near 09N78W, and continues to 08N82W to 09N90W to 07N97W to 08N105W and to 07N112W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to to 08N124W to 08N130W and to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 210 nm south of the trough between 92W and 96W, within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 130W and 133W, and within 90 nm north of the trough between 108W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 122W and 126W...within 120 nm north of the trough between 85W and 88W...within 60 nm south of the trough between 100W and 106W and within 90 nm south of the ITCZ between 133W and 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1011 mb low is located near 31N119W, with a trough extending southeastward to near 24N115W. With a weak pressure gradient across the region, winds across the offshore waters of Baja area generally westerly at 10 kt or less N of Cabo San Lazaro, and northwest near 15 kt offshore of Baja California Sur. A broad and weak ridge extends southeastward from the northwest waters of the discussion area, to the south of the trough, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure across Mexico will allow for northwest to north winds of 15-20 kt to occur from offshore of Cabo San Lucas to the Cabo Corrientes area for the next few days. The trough will slowly dissipate as it moves eastward through Sun. Cross-equatorial southwest swell will continue to propagate through the area this afternoon and mixed with wind waves across this area bringing waveheights in the range of 7-8 ft through Sun. Yet a more significant set of southwest swell, with periods of 17-22 sec., will propagate through these waters beginning on Sun night and through Mon, before it begins to decay on Mon night. This next set of swell will raise waveheights to the range of 7-10 ft in the waters between Manzanillo and the southern tip of Baja California. This swell set will add to the high surf along the coastlines and outer reefs. Gulf of California: Southwest winds of 20-25 kt over the far northern section of the Gulf will diminish to fresh speeds by early this afternoon. Seas will lower to 3-4 ft there. No significant gap wind events are expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec for the next several days as winds are expected to be generally onshore at 15 kt or less. Agricultural fires persist over southern Mexico and the associated smoke is producing conditions over the offshore waters along the waters of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Visibilities may occasionally be reduced 5 nm or less as a result. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A rather significant Southern Hemisphere southwest swell is presently propagating through these waters. This swell has raised the waveheights to 5-7 ft over these waters, and will continue to do so allowing for the waveheights to reach the range of 6-8 ft over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight. Yet another round of mainly southwest swell will propagate through the region Sun raising waveheights slightly higher, to a peak of around 9 or 10 ft through Mon before the swell begins to slowly decay through the middle part of the upcoming week. High surf should be expected across the coasts of Central and South America and to near southeastern Mexico. No significant gap wind events are expected over the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama through early next week, as light to gentle onshore winds are expected. Agricultural fires are occurring over northern Central America. However, the low-level flow is generally keeping haze and smoke away from the Central American Offshore Zones and no substantial impact on visibility is occurring. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1022 mb is analyzed north of the area at 34N142W, with a ridge extending southeastward to near 20N114W A weak trough is present to the northeast of this ridge near the Baja California Peninsula. The resultant weak pressure gradient is allowing for mainly moderate northeast winds to exist from 11N to 19N, and for gentle north to northeast winds elsewhere. A significant south to southwest Southern Hemisphere swell event with seas of at least 8 ft have reached to near 12N east of 130W, as observed by several overnight satellite altimeter passes. Peak seas north of the equator are around 10 ft. This swell will dominate area seas S of 20N through Sun, with yet another round of mainly southwest swell propagating northward to the waters east of 134W Sun. This set of swell will slowly decay through the middle part of the upcoming week. $$ Aguirre