000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111000 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat May 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from Colombia near 10N74W to 11N93W TO 07N111W, where it transitions to the ITCZ, continuing on to 08N124W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N TO 12N between 80W AND 88W, from 04.5N TO 11N between 88W AND 98W, from 06.5N TO 10N between 99W AND 110W, and within 150 NM N AND 180 NM S OF ITCZ between 118W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: A low along the southern California-Arizona border is creating a SW gap wind event through the lower terrain of Baja California Norte north of 29N. This event is weakening, but still producing strong SW winds of 20-25 kt tonight and peak seas of about 6 ft. The low will become absorbed with a broad and weaker low pressure center offshore of San Diego tonight, as it moves slowly eastward and across the area through late Sunday. Winds and seas will become quiescent from late Sat through at least Wed. A trough or old cold frontal remnants extends from offshore of Baja California Norte near 30N117W to 22N126W. With a weak pressure gradient across the region, winds across the offshore waters of Baja area generally westerly at 10 kt or less N of Cabo San Lazaro, and NW near 15 kt offshore of Baja California Sur. A broad and weak ridge extends southeastward from the NW waters of the discussion area, to the south of the trough, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This is expected to produce sufficient pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure across Mexico to yield NW to N winds 15-20 kt from offshore of Cabo San Lucas to the Cabo Corrientes area for the next few days. Strong cross equatorial SW swell will move into the area this afternoon and mixed with developing wind waves across this area to produce seas of 7-8 ft through late Mon. This SW swell will also reach the area offshore waters Saturday through Saturday night to raise seas to 5-7 ft. This new swell will also generate high surf along the coastlines and outer reefs beginning this afternoon. No significant gap wind events are expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec for the next several days as winds are expected to be generally onshore at 15 kt or less. Agricultural fires persist over southern Mexico and the associated smoke is producing haziness across the Offshore Zones along the waters of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Visibilities may be reduced to 3 to 5 nm as a result. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A substantial SW Southern Hemisphere swell is moving into the regional waters tonight, and will dominate area seas through Wed. This will raise seas to 6-7 ft this morning and then to 7-9 ft tonight through Sun. High surf should be expected across the regional coastlines and offshore reefs from Equador to southeast Mexico. Yet another round of mainly southwest swell will propagate through the region Sun and slowly diminish through Wed. No significant gap wind events are expected over the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama through early next week, as light to gentle onshore winds are expected. Agricultural fires are occurring over northern Central America. However, the low-level flow is generally keeping haze and smoke away from the Central American Offshore Zones and no substantial impact on visibility is occurring. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A trough extends from offshore of Baja California Norte near 30N117W to 22N126W. With a weak pressure gradient north of the tradewind belt, the NE tradewinds are generally moderate to fresh. This trough will continue to move southeastward through Sun before dissipating, while a weak high pressure will build along 30N, helping to maintain quiescent conditions. A significant south to southwest Southern Hemisphere swell event with seas of at least 8 ft have reached to near 12N east of 130W, as observed by several overnight satellite altimeter passes. Peak seas north of the equator are around 10 ft. This swell will dominate area seas S of 20N through Sun, with yet another round of mainly southwest swell propagating northward to the E of 130W and through the regional waters Sun, and slowly diminish through Wed. $$ Stripling