000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102157
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2107 UTC Fri May 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from near the Costa Rica coast at 11N86W to
09N113W. From that point, it transitions to the ITCZ extending to
beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection exists within 240 
nm south of the trough east of 103W, within 120 nm of the ITCZ
from 117W to 130W, and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ west of
137W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of California: A low over southern California and Arizona 
is creating a gap wind event through the lower terrain of Baja
California Norte near 30N. While last night it likely peaked at
gale force, winds likely have dropped to SW strong breeze with 
peak seas around 7 ft. Nocturnal forcing will continue these 
winds overnight before fading on Sat. Winds and seas will become
quiescent from Sun through at least Wed.

A trough extends from offshore of Baja California Norte near 
30N118W to 22N130W. With a weak pressure gradient, winds are 
fresh breeze or weaker across the Mexican zones. This trough will
continue to move southeastward through Sun as a low over 
California and Arizona drops east-southeastward while weakening.
Weak high pressure will build along 30N, helping to promote 
generally moderate breeze conditions.

No significant gap wind events are expected over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec for the next several days. 

Agricultural fires persist over southern Mexico and haziness and
smoke are impacting the Offshore Zones south the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas including the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Visibilities may be reduced to 3 to 5 nm as a
result.

Substantial long-period cross equatorial SW swell will impact 
the open waters for the next several days before beginning to 
recede on Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A substantial south to southwest Southern Hemisphere swell event
reaching the Ecuador offshore waters will propagate northward 
through Sat night. Yet another round of mainly southwest swell 
will propagate through the region Sun and slowly diminish through
Wed.

No significant gap wind events are expected over the Gulf of 
Papagayo and Gulf of Panama through early next week, as light to 
gentle onshore winds are expected.

Agricultural fires are occurring over northern Central America.
However, the low-level flow is generally keeping haze and smoke 
away from the Central American Offshore Zones and no substantial
impact on visibility is occurring.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A trough extends from offshore of Baja California Norte near 
30N118W to 22N130W. With a weak pressure gradient, the NE tradewinds
are generally moderate to fresh. This trough will continue to 
move southeastward through Sun, while a weak high pressure will 
build along 30N, helping to maintain quiescent conditions.

A significant south to southwest Southern Hemisphere swell event
with seas of at least 8 ft have reached to near 08N east of 130W,
as observed by several satellite altimeter passes. Peak seas
north of the equator are around 10 ft. Yet another round of 
mainly southwest swell east of 130W will propagate through the 
region Sun and slowly diminish through Wed.


$$
Landsea