000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101813 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1813 UTC Fri May 10 2019 Updated ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Updated A trough extends from a 1010 mb low near 10N76W southwestward to 07N81W to 09N89W to 10N100W and 09N109W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 08N120W to 07N134W and to beyond the area at 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 125W and 128W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 130W and 135W, within 150 nm south of the trough between 79W and 81W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 135W and 140W and also within 60 nm south of the trough 98W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 240 nm south of the ITCZ between 109W and 113W, within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 114W and 120W and within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 125W and 128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad high pressure covers this section of the area. A weak pressure gradient to the east of the ridge is supporting generally moderate westerly winds across the waters of Baja California Norte, and moderate northwest to north winds to the south of Punta Eugenia. Seas across the area are in the 4-5 ft range in mixed northwest and southwest swell, except around 6 ft offshore and south of Cabo San Lucas, where northwest winds of 15-20 kt are occurring. While agricultural fires persist over southern Mexico, low-level winds are presently transporting the smoke northward toward the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, no visibility restrictions are expected over the Pacific waters at this time. A trough, remnants of a previous cold front, extends from Baja California Norte near 30N115W to 24N120W and to near 23N128W. This trough will continue to move southeastward through Sun as low off the southern California coasts drops east-southeastward while weakening. The high pressure will then build some to the southeast allowing for the fresh northwest winds south of Cabo San Lucas to continue. Little change is expected with the present synoptic pattern through the weekend as the ridging across the area changes little. Long-period cross equatorial SW swell will impact the open waters through early next week, with seas expected to peak at 6-8 ft Sun from Punta Eugenia to Cabo Corrientes. Gulf of California: The earlier gale force winds that were taking place over the far northern part of the Gulf have diminished to just below gale force just after 12Z this morning. The ongoing strong south to southwest winds there are forecast to diminish to mainly fresh winds on Sat and further to light and variable winds on Sun. Current waveheight of up to 7 ft will subside to around a peak of 5 ft tonight and 3-4 ft by Sat evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Agricultural fires continue over Central America, but the low level flow is transporting the smoke northward over the Gulf of Mexico, and while at the same time atmospheric moisture content increases in this part of the region. Therefore, no visibility impacts are expected over the Pacific waters at this time. Scattered scattered showers and thunderstorms are active south of 10N in the vicinity of the seasonal low pressure trough, and along the Pacific coasts from Guatemala to along and near the northwest coast of Costa Rica. A significant south to southwest Southern Hemisphere swell event reaching the Ecuador offshore waters will spread northward across the waters off Central America through Sat night, with wave periods of 15-19 sec. This will slowly decay through early Sun. Yet another round of southwest swell, with wave periods of 17-22 sec. will propagate through the region later on Sun and through Sun night, and slowly begin to decay early next week. Waveheights of 5-8 ft in these waters will continue through early next week, with higher waveheights of 7-10 ft over the waters south of about 02N. High and powerful surf should be expected along much of the coastlines during this time, with the continuation of dangerous rip currents. No significant gap wind events are expected over the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama through early next week, as gentle onshore wind flow is generally forecast through this period. Upper-level debris cloudiness streaming northeastward from deep convection along and near the Intertropical Convergence Zone are observed to the south 20N and west of about 105W. This cloudiness is being steered in an anticyclonic fashion over the northern periphery of mid and upper-level ridging aligned E to W from 09N to 10N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad high pressure ridge extends from a 1023 mb high center north of the area at 36N140W southeastward to a weak 1014 mb high at 21N128W and to near 19N112W. A weak pressure gradient to the south of the ridge is supporting generally gentle to moderate northeast winds. Little change is expected with this conditions through the weekend. Large, long-period cross equatorial southwest swell over the far southern waters will steadily propagate northward through this weekend. Recent altimeter data over the southern waters near 118W confirmed 10 ft seas moving across the Equator, with waveheights of up to 12 ft just south of the equator. Waveheights will reaching 8 ft are forecast to propagate as far north as 13N by midday on Sun. Seas are then forecast to subside beginning early next week as the long-period swell gradually decays throughout this region. $$ Aguirre