000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080241 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed May 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 10N75W TO 06.5N81W TO 09.5N91W TO 08N101W, where it transitions to ITCZ, continuing on to 09N115W TO 06.5N132W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 06.5N to 12N E of 94W and within 120 nm N and 240 nm S of the ITCZ between 100W and 120W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is present from 04N to 10N W of 121W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad high pressure ridge continues to build SE into the region this evening, extending from near 32N131W across the Baja California offshore waters to the waters S of Cabo Corrientes near 15N105W. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds off the coast of Baja California between the ridge and lower pressure over the Gulf of California will become fresh to locally strong this evening through early Wed along the coast and along and just downstream of Cabo Corrientes. Combined seas will build 6-8 ft in mixed S swell and N wind waves. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh NW flow will prevail over waters farther offshore of the Baja California coast through Thu with seas generally 5-7 ft. Looking ahead, low pressure will develop off the southern California coast Fri and weaken the ridge into the weekend. This will allow winds off Baja California to diminish to gentle with gradually subsiding seas into the weekend. Gentle manly westerly winds will prevail across the remaining Mexican waters east of Manzanillo for the next several days, where seas currently near 5 ft will build to 6-8 ft Fri through Sat as long period S to SW swell moves into the region. Ongoing agricultural burning in central and southeast Mexico continues to produce smoke across the region and may occasionally reduce visibilities over the adjacent offshore waters. A long narrow plume of dense smoke can be seen in satellite imagery this evening extending from the central coast of Guererro SW some 500 nm offshore. This smoke plume was just to the west of Acapulco, with several ongoing fires across the mountainous interior of the area. Gulf of California: SW to W gap winds over the northern Gulf this afternoon have diminished and become more southerly this evening. The SW gap winds will return on Tue but are expected to remain below 20 kt. A cold front will approach the northern Gulf on Thu night with strong to near gale force gap winds expected ahead of the front north of 29.5N. Otherwise, light to moderate N to NW winds will prevail over the central and southern Gulf during the next several days, with daytime heating leading to onshore seabreezes along much of the coastline of mainland Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Agricultural burning over Central America continues to produce smoke across the region and may occasionally reduce visibilities off the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador. Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh NE to E winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed. Winds will diminish to gentle by late week as the local pressure gradient weakens with distant high pressure moving away from the area. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds will persist through Sat night. A significant Southern Hemisphere S to SW swell event will move into the Ecuador offshore waters on Thu and propagate northward across the region through Sat night. Seas will build to 7-10 ft near the Galapagos Islands by Thu night with a peak wave period around 20 seconds. This swell will produce dangerous surf conditions along the coast of Central America and northern South America through the end of this week, and could produce areas of significant beach erosion and minor coastal flooding. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The building high pressure ridge extends through 32N131W southeastward across the northern waters. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades will prevail through Thu south of the ridge axis with seas generally 5-7 ft. As the ridge weakens Fri into the weekend, wind speeds will diminish slightly in response to the weakening pressure gradient. Low pressure centered NE of the Hawaiian Islands near 24N146W will slowly track NE and gradually weaken. Fresh to strong SE winds with seas to 8 ft will continue over the far western portion of high seas area to the east and southest of this system, mainly W of 135W this evening before conditions subside overnight. Looking ahead, a significant S to SW swell event will move into the southern waters on Wed and propagate northward through the end of the week and into the weekend. Seas will build to 12 ft south of the Equator between 95W and 110W on Thu with 8 ft seas spreading as far north as 08N by Fri night. $$ Stripling