000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070910
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
606 UTC Tue May 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough axis extends from low pres 1008 mb near 10N75W to 
07N81W to 08N92W to 08N100W. The ITCZ axis continues from 
08N100W to 05.5N131W, then resumes from 06N134W to beyond
06N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
observed from 03N to 08N E of 79W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is from 04N to 10N between 79W and 90W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 
09N between 85W and 95W and from 04N to 09N west of 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Generally moderate NW winds prevail off the coast of Baja 
California between a high pressure ridge extending SE from near 
32N131W to S of Cabo Corrientes near 16N106W. This ridge will 
gradually strengthen through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh NW 
flow is expected accordingly over the Baja California offshore 
waters through mid week.

Elsewhere, NW to N winds west of Cabo Corrientes will strengthen
to fresh speeds tonight and Wed as the ridge W of Baja builds SE
well beyond the Revillagigedo Islands and a low pres over 
interior Mexico deepens. NW to N winds west of Cabo Corrientes 
will strengthen to fresh to strong speeds Tue night and Wed as 
the ridge W of Baja continues to extend SE to well beyond the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas in the southern Mexico offshore 
waters will build to between 5 and 7 ft Fri through Sat as long 
period S to SW swell moves into the region. 

Although agricultural burning continues in SE Mexico, recent
surface observations along the coast suggest visibilities
continue to improve over the waters adjacent to southern Mexico.

Gulf of California: Another pulse of strong to near gale force 
SW to W gap winds is expected from 29.5N to 30.5N over the 
northern Gulf this morning as the high pres ridge to the W 
strengthens. Looking ahead, another cold front will approach the 
northern Gulf on Thu night and usher in gap winds strong to near
gale force. Otherwise, light to moderate winds will prevail over
the central and southern Gulf during the next several days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Agricultural burning continues over Central America, but recent 
surface observations along the coast suggest visibilities have 
improved over the adjacent waters.

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh offshore winds will pulse over the Gulf of 
Papagayo during the overnight and early morning hours through 
Wed, except that winds will be briefly strong early this morning.
Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by late week as
the local pressure gradient weakens with distant high pressure 
moving away from the area. 

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will continue through Sat 
night. The first significant Southern Hemisphere S to SW swell 
event of this season will move into the Ecuador offshore waters 
on Thu, then spread N across the region through Sat night. Seas 
will build to 7-10 ft near the Galapagos Islands with a peak wave
period around 20 seconds. This swell will likely produce 
dangerous surf conditions along the coast of Central America and 
northern South America through the end of this week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge continues building in over the northern
waters. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades will prevail 
through this weekend to the south of the ridge axis. Generally 4
to 7 ft seas will prevail N of the ITCZ and S of the ridge axis 
through the end of this week.

Low pressure centered NE of the Hawaiian Islands near 24N150W 
will slowly track NE during the next couple days as it gradually 
weakens. Fronts on the E side of this system will produce fresh 
to strong SE winds over the far western portion of the high seas 
domain today and tonight.

Looking ahead, a significant S to SW swell event will move into 
the southern waters on Wed and propagate northward through the 
end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Seas will build to
10 ft south of the Equator on Thu with 8 ft seas spreading to 
roughly south of 05N between 90W and 125W by Fri.

$$
CAM