000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070151
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon May 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough axis extends from 07N78W to 06N84W to 08N100W. The 
ITCZ axis extends from 08N100W to 06N120W to 06N129W, then
resumes from 06N131W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is from 04N to 10N between 79W and 90W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 06N 
between 90W and 93W, from 03N to 09N between 96W and 101W, from 
02N to 05N between 116W and 128W, from 06N to 08N between 120W 
and 127W, and also from 02N to 09N west of 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weakening cold front over the northern Gulf of California and 
Baja California Norte will dissipate tonight. Generally moderate
NW winds prevail off the coast of Baja California between an 
offshore high pressure ridge and the front. A high pressure 
ridge extending from near 32N133W to the Revillagigedo Islands 
will gradually strengthen through Thu. This will maintain 
moderate to locally fresh NW flow over the Baja California 
offshore waters through mid week.

Elsewhere, NW to N winds west of Cabo Corrientes will strengthen
to fresh speeds Tue night into Wed as the ridge builds SE well 
beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle winds will prevail south
of Cabo Corrientes this week with moderate winds expected over 
the nearshore waters driven by diurnal heating. Seas in the 
southern Mexico offshore waters will build to 5-7 ft Fri through 
Sat as long period S to SW swell moves into the region. 

Although agricultural burning continues in SE Mexico, recent
surface observations along the coast suggest visibilities have 
improved over the waters adjacent to southern Mexico.

Gulf of California: Another pulse of strong to near gale force 
SW to W gap winds are forecast from 29.5N to 30.5N over the 
northern Gulf tonight as the ridge strengthens west of the area,
and as a surface trough west of Baja California approaches in the
wake of a dissipating cold front. Looking ahead, another cold 
front will approach the northern Gulf on Thu night with gap winds
once again expected to reach strong to near gale force speeds. 
Otherwise, light to moderate winds will prevail over the central 
and southern Gulf during the next several days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Although agricultural burning continues in SE Mexico, recent
surface observations along the coast suggest visibilities have 
improved over the waters adjacent to southern Mexico.

Gulf of Papagayo: NE to E will pulse to fresh speeds over the 
Gulf of Papagayo primarily during the overnight and early morning
hours through Wed, except brief fresh to strong late tonight. 
Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by late week as 
the local pressure gradient weakens with distant high pressure 
moving away from the area. 

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will continue through Sat 
night. A significant S to SW swell event will move into the 
Ecuador offshore waters on Thu and spread northward across the 
region through Sat night. Seas will build to 7-10 ft near the 
Galapagos Islands with a peak wave period around 20 seconds. This
swell will likely produce dangerous surf conditions along the 
coast of Central America and northern South America through the 
end of this week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge is building in from the NW in the wake of 
a weakening cold front across Baja California Norte and the
adjacent offshore waters. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades 
will prevail through the week and into the weekend to the south 
of the ridge axis. Generally 4-7 ft seas will prevail N of the 
ITCZ and S of the ridge axis through the week and into the 
upcoming weekend.

Strong low pressure centered NE of the Hawaiian Islands near 
23N149W will slowly track NE over the next couple days while 
gradually weakening. Its associated frontal system will produce 
fresh to strong SE winds over the far western portion of the high
seas domain Tue into Tue night.

Looking ahead, a significant S to SW swell event will move into 
the southern waters on Wed and propagate northward through the
end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Seas will build 
to 10 ft south of the Equator on Thu with 8 ft seas roughly south
of 05N between 90W and 125W by Fri.

$$
Lewitsky