000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062142 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon May 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 06N77W to 07N100W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N100W to 05N120W to 06N130W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm either side of the trough east of 85W, from 05N to 08N between 85W and 92W, from 02N to 06N between 120W and 125W, and from 03N to 07N west of 131W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 05N between 109W and 111W, and also from 06N to 08N between 116W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front over the northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte will dissipate tonight. Generally moderate NW winds prevail off the coast of Baja California between an offshore high pressure ridge and the front. A high pressure ridge extending from near 32N135W to the Revillagigedo Islands will gradually strengthen through Thu. This will maintain moderate to locally fresh NW flow over the Baja California offshore waters through mid week. Elsewhere, NW to N winds west of Cabo Corrientes will strengthen to fresh speeds Tue night into Wed as the ridge builds SE well beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle winds will prevail south of Cabo Corrientes this week with moderate winds expected over the nearshore waters driven by diurnal heating. Seas in the southern Mexico offshore waters will build to 5-7 ft Fri through Sat as long period S to SW swell moves into the region. Agricultural burning continues in SE Mexico, and recent surface observations along the coast suggest visibilities have diminished again this afternoon over the waters adjacent to southern Mexico. These conditions are forecast to continue overnight. Gulf of California: Another pulse of strong to near gale force SW to W gap winds are forecast from 29.5N to 30.5N over the northern Gulf tonight as the ridge strengthens west of the area, and as a surface trough west of Baja California approaches in the wake of a dissipating cold front. Looking ahead, another cold front will approach the northern Gulf on Thu night with gap winds once again expected to reach strong to near gale force speeds. Otherwise, light to moderate winds will prevail over the central and southern Gulf during the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Agricultural burning continues in SE Mexico, and recent surface observations along the coast suggest visibilities have diminished again this afternoon over the waters adjacent to southern Mexico. These conditions are forecast to continue overnight. Gulf of Papagayo: NE to E will pulse to fresh speeds over the Gulf of Papagayo primarily during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by late week as the local pressure gradient weakens with distant high pressure moving away from the area. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will continue through Sat night. A significant S to SW swell event will move into the Ecuador offshore waters on Thu and spread northward across the region through Sat night. Seas will build to 7-10 ft near the Galapagos Islands with a peak wave period around 20 seconds. This swell will likely produce dangerous surf conditions along the coast of Central America and northern South America through the end of this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge is building in from the NW in the wake of a weakening cold front across Baja California Norte and the adjacent offshore waters. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades will prevail through the week and into the weekend to the south of the ridge axis. Earlier altimeter data and overnight model guidance indicated seas up to 8 ft roughly west of 134W from 08N to 12N. Generally 4-7 ft seas will prevail N of the ITCZ and S of the ridge axis through the week and into the upcoming weekend. Strong low pressure centered NE of the Hawaiian Islands near 24N150W will slowly track NE over the next couple days while gradually weakening. Its associated frontal system will produce fresh to strong SE winds over the far western portion of the high seas domain Tue into Tue night. Looking ahead, a significant S to SW swell event will move into the southern waters on Wed and propagate northward through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Seas will build to 10 ft south of the Equator on Thu with 8 ft seas roughly south of 05N between 90W and 125W by Fri. $$ Lewitsky